中国可再生能源消费预测及补贴策略研究  

Forecasting Analysis and Subsidy Strategy on Renewable Energy Consumption of China

作　　者：赵文会[1] 高姣倩 宋亚君[1] 黄海涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海电力学院经济与管理学院,上海200090

出　　处：《中国电力》2016年第4期181-187,共7页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71403163;71203137);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(11YJC790295);中国博士后科学基金项目(2013M540910);上海市哲学社科规划基金项目(2014BJB017)~~

摘　　要：可再生能源消费受多种因素影响,简单的灰色模型已经不能对可再生能源消费作出准确预测。将传统的灰色GM(1,1)模型与缓冲算子相结合,模拟和预测中国的可再生能源消费,探究了政策补贴对中国可再生能源消费的影响,在预测结果基础之上构建了2种政策补贴策略模型,研究了中国可再生能源消费的政策补贴力度。结果显示,基于缓冲算子的GM(1,1)方法拟合效果更好,模型精度更高;2013—2020年中国可再生能源消费占比呈现递增趋势,但是在停止政策补贴力度的情况下,增长趋势明显低于延续原有政策补贴力度。The consumption of renewable energy is influenced by several factors, and the gray model cannot make accurate forecast in this case. The renewable energy consumption in China is simulated and forecasted based on combination of buffer operator and grey GM （1,1） model. Impact of policy subsidy on renewable energy consumption is also discussed. Two kinds of subsidy strategy models based on renewable energy consumption forecasting are established to explore the impact strength of policy subsidy on renewable energy consumption. Excel is used to solve the model and the result shows that the GM （1, 1） method combined with buffer operator has better fitting accuracy. During period of 2013-2020, the ratio of renewable energy consumption trend to increase. However, the growth rate without policy subsidies is significantly lower than that with continuation of the original policy subsidies. In addition, in order to successfully complete plan goal of ＂long-term planning for renewable energy development＂, policy subsidy need to be adjust to at least 1.65 times of previous value.

关 键 词：可再生能源 政策补贴 缓冲算子 GM(1 1) 补贴策略 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]