考虑从众心理的城市居民购车意愿分析  

Car Ownership Intention of City Residents Considering Conformist Mentality

作　　者：申翔浩[1] 冯树民[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院,哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2016年第2期206-211,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划863计划项目(2014AA110304)~~

摘　　要：正确并充分了解城市居民购车意愿,对于引导合理的私人小汽车需求,继而缓解道路交通压力具有重要意义.基于城市居民购车意愿问卷调查数据,将购车意愿分为3个等级.考虑从众心理因素,运用多元Logistic回归分析方法,分析比较不同类型城市居民购车意愿特性.结果表明,总体上从众心理、收入因素对购车意愿产生显著影响,年龄、性别、家至单位是否有地铁等因素影响不显著;通过对比有无小汽车限购政策城市,发现限购政策的实施会刺激24-45周岁年龄段2年内购车意愿,指出相比强制性措施,应倡导引导型策略,即通过发展公共交通来抑制购车意愿.Correctly and fully understand the car ownership intention of city residents has a great significance on guiding reasonable needs of private cars and then alleviating the pressure of the road traffic.Based on the survey data of urban residents, divide the car ownership intention into three levels, then considering conformity factor, using multinomial Logistic regression, analysis and comparison are carried out for the car ownership intention of residents in different city categories. The results show that overall factors of conformity and income have a significant impact on car ownership intention of residents, however,factors of age, gender and whether a subway is possible from home to working place have no significance impact. Through comparing cities with and without the policy curbing the purchase of private cars, it finds out that for residents＇ age from 24 to 45 years old, the curbing policy will stimulate the intention of buying a car in two years, it points out rather than mandatory measures, guiding strategy should be promoted by developing public transportation.

关 键 词：城市交通 购车意愿 多元LOGISTIC回归 从众心理 限购政策 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]