福建省旅游包车客运需求分析  

Analysis of Passenger Transport Demand for Tour Charter in Fujian Province

作　　者：陈清耀 陈诚[1] 柯法滔 张兰怡[1] 侯秀英[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学交通与土木工程学院,福建福州350002 [2]福建省运输管理局,福建福州350001

出　　处：《华东交通大学学报》2016年第2期63-71,共9页Journal of East China Jiaotong University

基　　金：福建省科技厅重点项目资助(2014H0010)

摘　　要：以福建省旅游包车客运需求分析为目的,具体分析了目前福建省旅游业的发展现状,发现福建省各设区市旅游经济发展不平衡;基于Shapley值法的权重分配原理,采用GM(1,1)模型和ARIMA(p,d,q)的组合预测模型对福建省未来5年的旅游人数进行预测,结果显示未来福建省旅游人数将进一步增多,至2018年有可能达到41 438.81万人次;针对预测结果对福建省未来的旅游运力投放量以及相关政策的修订提出建议,以期实现福建省旅游业更好更快的发展。Aiming at analyzing the passenger transport demand for tour charter in Fujian Province,this study dis-cusses the current development situation of tourism in Fujian Province and explores the unbalanced tourism econ-omy among districts and cities of Fujian Province. According to weight distribution principle based on Shapley value method,by use of combination forecasting model of GM （1,1） and ARIMA （p,d,q）, it forecasts the number of tourists for the next 5 years in Fujian Province,which shows that the number of tourists would further increase and even is likely to reach 414388100. In light of the forecasting results,suggestions for tourism capacity and the revision of relevant policies are proposed to achieve better and faster development of tourism in Fujian Province.

关 键 词：包车客运 需求分析 GM(1 1) ARIMA(p d q) 组合预测 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]