海河北系1956年-2012年降水时序演变特征  

Characteristics analysis of time serial of rainfall in the northern part of Haihe River Basin from 1956 to 2012

作　　者：章数语 王建华[1] 翟家齐[1] 李海红[1] 赵勇[1] 王庆明[1] 张伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2016年第3期36-42,共7页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51309249;51379216);水利部公益行业科研专项(201401041);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951100);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAC19B03)~~

摘　　要：采用海河流域北系20个气象站1956年-2012年降水时间序列,从趋势、周期、突变和空间差异四个方面分析了该地区降水时空变化特征。结果显示:海河北系年降水以14.9mm/(10a)的速度减少;降水具有多时间尺度下的显著差异特征:月尺度较平稳,仅10月、11月发生显著下降,5月、6月发生显著增加;季尺度上,春、秋季较平稳,夏、冬季呈现下降趋势;年降雨呈现28年显著周期,并且在20世纪80年代前后转入枯水期。地区差异上,山区较平原区降水变化幅度更大,但周期平稳,突变时间更早。The annual precipitation time series of 20 climate stations in the northern part of Haihe River Basin from 1956 to 2012were analyzed in this paper.The spatial and multi-temporal characteristics of the rainfall were analyzed from the aspects of trend test,period analysis,breakpoint detection and spatial heterogeneity analysis.The results showed that:(1)the rainfall of the northern part of Haihe River Basin decreased by 14.9mm per ten years;(2)rainfall of different time scales had significantly different characters:the monthly rainfall was steady,with rainfall in October and November decreasing significantly and that in May and June increasing significantly;the rainfall in spring and autumn were relatively stable and the decline in summer and winter were of significance;the annual rainfall were of 28 years period and switched from wet season to dry season in around1980 s.(3)annual rainfall in mountain areas reduced at a rate twice as quick as that in plain areas,but had more solid period and earlier breakpoint.

关 键 词：海河北系 降水 时间序列 多尺度 时空变化 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]