气候变暖背景下中国南方干旱灾害风险特征及对策  

Characteristic and Countermeasures of Drought Risk in South China under the Background of Climate Warming

作　　者：姚玉璧[1,2] 王莺[1] 王劲松[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所//甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室//中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省定西市气象局,甘肃定西743000

出　　处：《生态环境学报》2016年第3期432-439,共8页Ecology and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430206);公益性行业(气象)科研重大专项(GYHY201506001-6);国家自然科学基金项目(41575149)

摘　　要：利用西南和华南6省市133个国家基本气象站1961─2012年历年逐日地面气象观测资料,研究中国南方干旱致灾因子的时空变化特征,建立致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露度的评估指标,分析中国南方干旱灾害风险分布特征,提出干旱灾害风险防控策略与防御对策。结果表明:研究区逐年降水量呈现波动减少,进入21世纪后降水量明显偏少,且降水量年际振荡加大。自1971年开始西南和华南气温持续上升,气候变暖的突变点在1997年左右。干旱灾害致灾因子危险性高的区域是云南省大部、川西高原、川西南山地、川东部盆地和广东东部沿海区域。孕灾环境脆弱性高的区域在云南省大部、川西高原、川西南山地、川东部盆地和贵州省西北部。承灾体暴露度高的区域在广东东部沿海区、雷州半岛、广西南部和川中盆地。为控制南方干旱灾害风险,需制定和完善具有一定前瞻性和科学合理的干旱灾害风险控制管理规划,建立干旱灾害风险评估系统。从人工干预干旱灾害致灾因子、降低孕灾环境脆弱性、降低承灾体的暴露性等方面入手通过工程性措施和非工程性措施提高抗旱减灾能力。Based on daily surface meteorological observation data from 133 national basic meteorological stations located in 6 provinces in southwest and south China during 1961 and 2012, the temporal and spatial variation characteristic of drought hazard in south China was studied, evaluation indicators were established for the risks of drought hazard, fragility of drought environment and the exposure degree of hazard-bearing body. Distribution characteristic of drought risks in south China is analyzed and strategies were carried out for the drought risk controlling and defense. Results shows: annual precipitation in the researched region show a fluctuate decrease, precipitation decreased obviously after entering the 21 century with the annual oscillation of precipitation increased. Temperature in the researched region start to increase continuously since 1971 in southwest and south China, and the abrupt junction of climate warming appeared around year 1997. The regions with higher risks of drought hazard include most regions in Yunnan province, west Sichuan plateau, southwest Sichuan mountainous regions, east Sichuan basin and coastal regions in east Guangdong province. Regions with higher fragility of drought environment include most regions of Yunnan province, west Sichua plateau, southwest Sichuan mountainous regions, east Sichuan basin and northwest Guizhou province. Regions with higher exposure degree of hazard-bearing body include coastal regions in east Guangdong, Leizhou peninsula, south Guangxi and middle Sichuan basin. Thus, it is necessary to establish and improve the planning of drought risk controlling and management which should also be prospective and scientific, as well as building a drought risk evaluation system. Starting to enhance the drought relief ability from engineering and non-engineering perspectives such as manual intervene drought risk hazard, decrease fragility of drought environment, reduce exposure degree of hazard bearing body.

关 键 词：干旱 灾害风险 空间特征 对策 中国南方 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]