政治冲击、不确定性风险与商业信贷合约  

Political Shock, Uncertainty Risk and Trade Credit Contract

作　　者：钱爱民[1] 张晨宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际商学院,北京100029

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2016年第5期22-32,共11页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71272041);教育部人文社会科学规划项目(11YJA630085);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务专项资金(CXTD5-02)

摘　　要：基于地方官员更替的视角,考察了市委书记更替这种政治冲击带来的不确定性风险对微观企业商业信贷行为的影响。研究发现:政治冲击增加了微观企业的风险,使企业的商业信贷能力减弱;政治冲击与商业信贷的负相关关系在非国有企业、政府质量低的地区以及政治关联企业中更为显著,且这种效应因官员异质性而存在差异。为了规避这种不确定性风险,企业会提高会计稳健性,增加现金持有。From the perspective of local official turnover, this paper tests the influence of the uncertainty risk caused by political shock of official turnover on trade credit of micro-firms. We find that the official turnover diminishes the trade credit capacity. The negative correlation between political shock and trade credit is more significant in N-SOEs, the areas with lower government quality and political connection firms. Furthermore, for the officials who come from external and non-native place, the political shock is more negative with trade credit. In order to avoid the political uncertainty, firms will improve accounting conservatism and increase cash holdings to ease the impact of the uncertainty caused by political shock.

关 键 词：政治冲击 商业信贷 不确定性风险 官员异质性 

分 类 号：F275.5[经济管理—企业管理]