可修多阶段任务系统成功概率评估模型  

Evaluation Model of Mission Success Probability for Repairable Phased-mission Systems

作　　者：曹畔畔 罗长远[1] 

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《系统工程》2016年第2期138-143,共6页Systems Engineering

摘　　要：对于可修系统在执行多阶段复杂任务时的任务成功概率评估问题,在充分分析任务执行过程中的特点及影响任务成功概率的因素,并对不同执行条件下单阶段任务成功概率评估分析的基础上,结合多阶段复杂任务的不同逻辑关系,提出了多任务成功概率评估模型;并以串联关系多阶段任务为例,得出在不同初始备件数量和不同维修能力的条件下,系统的任务成功概率,具有一定的使用价值和参考意义。For the mission success probability assessment of repairable complex phased-mission system, this paper, based on the analysis of characteristics of the mission implementation and the impact mission success probabilit, analyzes the single-phase mission success probability under different conditions by combining different logic complex phased-mission systems. It also proposes a repairable phased-mission system success probability evaluation model. As an example, an series phased-minion system has been calculate. The system mission success probability has been obtained under different initial conditions and different number of spare parts repair capabilities. This model is proved to have a certain reference value and significance.

关 键 词：可修系统 多阶段任务 成功概率 评估模型 

分 类 号：TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计]