全球、大洲、区域尺度暴雨时空格局变化(1981-2010年)  

Spatiotemporal patterns of global-continental-regional scale heavy rainfall

作　　者：孔锋[1,2] 王铸[1,2] 刘凡[1,2] 方建[3] 方佳毅[1,2] 李孟阳[1,2] 杨旭[1,2] 史培军[1,2,1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学民政部教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第2期228-234,共7页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体资助项目(41321001);国家重大科学研究计划资助项目(2012CB955404)

摘　　要：通过计算1981—2010年全球、大洲和区域的年际和年代际的暴雨雨量和暴雨雨日,系统分析了不同尺度暴雨的变化情况.结果表明:1)在全球尺度上,1981—2010年全球年际和年代际暴雨雨量和暴雨雨日在波动中都呈现增加趋势,尤其是1991—2000年代中期以来显著增加.在空间上,全球暴雨雨量和暴雨雨日增强的区域主要分布在非洲西部、马达加斯加岛、欧洲西南、东亚、南亚、东南亚、澳大利亚东部、美国东部、南美洲中部以及一些狭长陡峭的山脉地带.年代际暴雨雨量和暴雨雨日主要在南美洲、美国东部、东亚和南亚地区随着年代变化而呈现数值上的增长和区域上的扩张.随着年代变化,非洲西部地区呈现数值上的减少和区域上的缩减;2)在大洲尺度上,仅非洲和南极洲年际和年代际暴雨雨量和雨日呈现减少趋势;3)在区域尺度上,暴雨增加的区域多于减少的区域,且增加最大的区域位于亚马逊河流域,减少最大的区域位于非洲东部地区.Severe disasters due to extreme precipitation events,often attributing to climate changes,have been increasingly noted worldwide.The relationship between climate change and extreme precipitation has become one of the hottest scientific frontier issues.In this research,we calculated the annual and decadal heavy rainfall amount（HRA）and heavy rainfall days（HRD）on global-continental-regional scale in order to analyze variations in heavy rainfall from 1981 to 2010at a global scale.It was found that on the global scale,on temporal dimension,HRA and HRD increased in volatility on the whole.Especially from the mid-1990 s,annual and decadal HRA and HRD increased significantly.On spatial dimension,the highest global HRA and HRD are mainly distributed in west Central Africa,Madagascar,Southwestern Europe,East Asia,South Asia,Southeast Asia,Eastern Australia,Eastern United States central South America and some narrow steep mountain regions.Decadal HRA and HRD with numerical growth and regional expansion over the years are mainly concentrated in South America,Eastern United States,South and East Asia while they are in the western region of Africa with numerical reduction and regional reduction.On a continent scale,only Africa and Antarctica interannual and decadal HRA and HRD showed a decreasing trend.On a regional scale,the increasing area of regional HRA and HRD excess reduction area and the maximum increasing area is located in the Amazon basin,the maximum reducing area is located in the eastern region.

关 键 词：暴雨 年际和年代际变化 区域对比 时空格局 全球尺度 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]