企业突破性技术创新投资决策的期权博弈模型  

On the Option Game Model of the Investment Decisions for Radical Technology Innovation in Enterprises

作　　者：刘卫柏[1,2] 李中[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学中国农村研究院,北京100084 [2]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [3]邵阳学院经济与管理系,邵阳422000

出　　处：《管理评论》2016年第4期89-97,共9页Management Review

基　　金：湖南省教育厅重点项目(15A174)

摘　　要：在引入企业项目投资特征的基础上,运用泊松分布分析方法阐释企业突破性技术创新的演变发展过程,进一步结合文献和决策实践,构建企业突破性技术创新的期权博弈模型。旨在分析项目收益与投入成本受企业突破性技术创新影响产生的正向、负向跳跃及不确定三种情形,分别得出突破性技术创新项目的投资机会价值、投资临界值。研究结果表明:企业突破性技术创新项目投资决策过程中,项目价值跳跃与其实现的频率变化是企业突破性技术创新投资决策的两个核心影响因素。通过突破性技术创新可以使企业获得可持续发展能力,破解发展过程中存在的瓶颈与障碍,进而步入良性发展轨道。Based on introducing the characteristics of project investment in enterprises,the Approach of Poisson Distribution is led into this paper to analyze the evolution process of radical technology innovation in enterprises,with the further combination of relevant literatures and decision practices,the option game model for it is constructed,aiming to analyze three such cases as positive jump,negative jump and uncertainty that project benefits and the cost of inputs have produced,influenced by the disruptive technology innovation of enterprises. Therefore,the values of investment opportunities and the investment threshold of radical technology innovation projects are respectively obtained. The research indicates that in the decision-making of investment for the project of radical technology innovation in enterprises,two major factors that affect investment decisions are to achieve the jump of the project value caused by the radical technology innovation and its frequency. The radical technology innovation enables businesses to obtain sustainable development,and crack the bottlenecks and barriers that exist in their process of development,thus achieving a virtuous cycle of sustainable development.

关 键 词：突破性技术创新 期权 博弈 投资决策 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理]