出行主体的相对危险暴露量研究综述  

Literature Review on Surrogate Exposure Technique:Quasi-induced Exposure

作　　者：江欣国[1] 章国鹏[1] 柏伟[1] 夏亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报》2016年第3期546-552,共7页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271176);四川省青年基金资助项目(2014JQ0014)

摘　　要：道路交通安全已经成为社会发展面临的一个严峻问题.传统的交通安全研究通常以车辆行驶里程作为危险暴露量指标,缺少系统的原始事故数据处理流程及必要的理论假设检验工作,且理论假设的验证方法仍不完善.同时非驾驶相关行为或交通罚单被广泛应用于事故责任分配,其准确性也有待检验.使用相对危险暴露量理论和方法从微观层面鉴定出行主体事故倾向性能够准确反映事故发生环境的时空变动性和事故主体的差异性.未来相对危险暴露量理论在数据处理方面,应制定规范的事故数据处理流程,通过统计学手段揭示事故数据的内在问题,然后采用相应的数据预处理方案;事故定责方面,可引入权重的概念确定其显著性因子,通过责任分配模型来确定各出行主体的事故责任;在理论假设的检验方面,确定该理论的使用准则和应用前景.Traffic safety has become one of the most critical issues in the social development. In the traditional exposure measurement, vehicle miles traveled is the most frequently used technique. The issues associated with the use of quasi-induced exposure are that it lacks the systematic data screening process and theoretical validation on the underlying assumptions. In the meanwhile, there are problems of using the non-driving related behaviors or traffic tickets in the assignment of crash responsibility. The application of quasi-induced exposure theory is able to quantify the crash propensity of the driving cohorts and thus accurately reflect the varying spatial and temporal conditions of crash environments and the discrepancy of the driving populations. In the future development of quasi-induced exposure, the research should be directed to develop the systematic procedure to screen crash data, conduct statistical methods to reveal inherent problems of crash data, and stipulate the according schemes to manipulate the data. From the aspect of responsibility assignment, the research should introduce weights into the causal factors, and assign the faults to the involved drivers through the fauh-assignment models. Finally, the authors attempt to establish the application guidelines of quasi-induced exposure through the theoretical validations on the assumptions.

关 键 词：相对危险暴露量 数据处理 责任分配 验证假定 事故倾向性 

分 类 号：X915.1[环境科学与工程—安全科学]