复杂系统视角下供应链模型动力学仿真研究  

Research on Supply Chain Models and Its Dynamical Characteristics Simulation Based on Complex System Theory

作　　者：于世海[1] 陈光春[1] 

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学管理学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2016年第4期328-331,347,共5页Computer Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71463011);国家社会科学基金项目(13BMZ073);教育部人文社科基金项目(12YJA850008);桂林理工大学科研启动费资助项目(002401003465)

摘　　要：针对当前供应链管理表现出的高度不确定性或随机性等动态复杂系统特点,通过计算李雅谱诺夫指数指数(Lyapunov Index)、功率谱和关联维,分析了不同生产策略条件下供应链所具有的分岔和混沌等动力学特征,同时运用混沌的遍历性和初值敏感性,阐述了制造商组织柔性生产的可行性和供应链中牛鞭效应存在的原因及相应的防范对策。Considering the uncertainty or randomness of current chain management process as a dynamic complex system, this paper calculated the Lyapunov index, power spectrum and correlation dimension to analyze the dynamic characteristics of supply chain, such as bifurcation and chaos under different production strategies. The feasibilities of flexible production of manufacturers groups, together with the reasons and countermeasures of bullwhip effect in supply chain, were discussed by utilizing chaotic crgodicity and initial condition sensitiveness.

关 键 词：供应链 生产策略 动力学特性 混沌 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]