突发事件下决策者线索搜寻的证实性偏差  

Confirmation Bias of Decision Makers' Cues Searching in Emergency

作　　者：刘效广[1] 杨乃定[1,2] 张云翌[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,陕西西安710072 [2]西北工业大学应急管理研究所,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2016年第2期216-222,共7页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171162)

摘　　要：分析了突发事件下决策者的线索搜寻顺序,以及初始线索类型、决策者情绪和事态严重性在其中发挥的作用。采用实验心理学方法,对被试在不同实验条件下的线索搜寻行为进行统计分析。结果表明:(1)决策者在线索搜寻过程中存在证实性偏差,即优先搜寻主导方案的一致性线索。(2)决策者倾向于同时拥有证明主导方案更合理的线索和证明非主导方案风险更大的线索,当初始线索为其中一种时,另一种线索就会被优先搜寻。(3)决策者的负性情绪使证实性偏差的程度更强,突发事件的事态越严重,决策者证实性偏差的程度越弱。After an emergency, decision makers usually have few cues at the beginning. Due to limited resources, decision makers only can search for a small portion of all cues. This yields a question： what cues will be searched preferentially？ Nickerson et al found that people often preferentially search for cues that are consistent with initial beliefs or assumptions, and ignore those inconsistent cues in some decision-making tasks. The phenomenon is called confirmatory bias. Dose confirmatory bias exist in emergency decision making？ In addition, an emergency event has two important features： the severity of event and strong negative emotion of decision makers. How do these two features influence confirmation bias during emergency？ The purpose of this paper is to answer these questions in order to better predict and guide the emergency decision-making behavior.For this purpose, we designed a psychological experiment, which was 2（decision makers＇ emotions： neutral vs. negative） × 2（severity of emergency： general severity vs. high severity） × 2（initial cues： A ＋ vs. B-） between-subjects design under the background of Tangjiashan dammed lake event. In this experiment, subjects were asked to make a choice between two construction locations（A and B for short）. At first, the experiment provided two initial known cues. Subjects must choose three cues to search from eight unknown ones, which can be classified into four types, namely A＋, A-, B ＋ and B- that representreasonable cues and risky cues for option A and B, respectively. Each type had two cues. A＋ and B- cues were called consistent cues because they were consistent with initial preference, while the other two were called inconsistent cues. Through statistical analysis of subjects＇ behavior of searching for cues, this paper has some findings. Firstly, the number of consistent cues searched by subjects（numcst for short） was higher than inconsistent cues, which was statistically proved by paired samples T-test. Secondly, the

关 键 词：突发事件 线索搜寻 证实性偏差 情绪 事态严重性 

分 类 号：B842.6[哲学宗教—基础心理学]