前景理论对报童决策偏差的适用性  

Applicability of prospect theory to newsvendor decision bias

作　　者：丁小东[1,2] 庄河 徐菱[1] 蒋葛夫[1] 黄修莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都610031 [2]中国铁道科学研究院运输及经济研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《控制与决策》2016年第5期853-862,共10页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71377156;71403225)

摘　　要：前景理论是不确定决策领域的基础理论,而均值前景(mean prospect)模型下的前景理论可以解释报童决策偏差现象.为此,通过改进均值前景模型,构建不同产品下决策者参考点的计算方法,提出了基于前景理论的库存决策模型,并从理论上证明了前景理论与报童决策偏差之间的关系.仿真结果显示,不同产品中决策者的心理参考点、感知损失/获益区间存在显著差异,部分产品中前景理论能够有效解释决策者的实际订购行为,该结论与己有的研究成果一致.The prospect theory is the basic theory in the field of uncertain decision making. The prospect theory can explain it under the mean prospect model. Therefore, through the improvement of mean prospect, the calculation method of reference point for different products is constructed, and the inventory decision model under the prospect theory is proposed. The relationship between the prospect theory and the newsvendor decision-making deviation is proved theoretically. Simulation results show that in different products, the decision maker＇s psychological reference point and sensory loss（gain） interval are significantly different. What＇s more, in part of products, the prospect theory can explain the decision maker＇s actual order behavior. This conclusion is consistent with the existent research.

关 键 词：前景理论 库存决策模型 均值前景 报童模型 报童决策偏差 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]