陕西省生态足迹及其驱动力  

Ecological footprint and its driving force in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：卞子浩 赵永华[2,3] 王晓峰[2,3] 奥勇[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210046 [2]长安大学地球科学与资源学院,西安710054 [3]长安大学土地工程学院,西安710054

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2016年第5期1316-1322,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31170664;31000222);中央高校基本科研业务项目(310827140060;310827130263)资助

摘　　要：生态足迹是衡量可持续发展的一项重要指标。本文基于最新生态足迹算法和改进模型对陕西省2002—2012年的生态足迹进行计算,研究陕西省生态赤字动态变化情况。在此基础上,使用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型建立生态赤字与人均生态赤字预测模型,对陕西省未来可持续发展情况进行预测,同时运用主成分分析法研究生态足迹增长的驱动力。结果表明:2002—2012年陕西省生态足迹保持持续增长状态,其中碳足迹对增长贡献最大;生态承载力保持稳定,生态赤字呈增长趋势,陕西省目前的发展状态是不可持续的;如果持续目前的发展和消费模式,未来陕西省生态赤字和人均生态赤字将持续增加;高速城镇化是陕西省生态足迹增长最重要的驱动力。未来陕西省需要大力发展低碳经济,推进新能源与节能减排,减少对化石燃料的依赖。Ecological footprint is an important evaluating indicator of sustainable development. Based on the latest algorithm and improved model of ecological footprint, ecological footprint was calculated and analyzed in order to understand the dynamic change of ecological deficit in Shaanxi Province from 2002 to 2012. The gray system GM （ 1, 1 ） model was used to establish ecological deficit and per capita ecological deficit forecast models for forecasting the future sus- tainable development of Shaanxi Province. Meanwhile, principal component analysis was used to study the driving force of ecological footprint＇ s growth. The results showed that ecological foot- print kept growing during 2002-2012 in Shaanxi Province, and carbon footprint made the largest contribution to the growth. The current development status of Shaanxi Province was unsustainable according to its stabling bioeapacity and increasing ecological deficit. If the development and con- sumption patterns remained stable, the ecological deficit and per capita ecological deficit would continue to rise in the future in Shaanxi Province. The rapid urbanization was the most important driving force of ecological footprint growth. Thus Shaanxi Province, we need to vigorously develop sions and lower our dependence on fossil fuels. in the future, for the sustainable development of low carbon economy, save energy, reduce emis-sions and lower our dependence on fossil fuels.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态赤字 灰色模型预测 驱动力 陕西省 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]