基于数理统计的地铁车站换乘走行时间估计研究  

Estimation on the Transfer Walking Time in the Subway Station Based on Mathematic Statistics

作　　者：童燚杰 王利鑫[1] 潘明轩 李正洋[1] 金波[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2016年第1期7-11,共5页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

基　　金：西南交通大学2015年国家大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201510613047)

摘　　要：对车站换乘走行时间的估计是分析成网条件下地铁线路间列车合理衔接,减少乘客总换乘等待时间的前提。基于数理统计方法对地铁车站换乘走行时间规律进行研究,设计地铁车站换乘走行时间规律的抽样调查方法,同时采用正态分布和对数正态分布函数对地铁车站换乘走行时间分布进行描述,并利用极大似然估计法对其中的参数进行估计。最后,以重庆地铁两路口换乘站为例,对所提出方法的实际可行性进行验证。Estimation of the transfer walking time in subway stations is the premise of analyzing the subway reasonably connection between subway lines and the decrease of the total transfer passengers waiting time in the condition of subway network. This paper researches the law of transfer walking time in the subway station based on the method of mathematical statistics. It designs a sampling survey method to infer the law of transfer walking time in the subway station. By using the normal distribution function and the lognormal distribution function, this paper describes the regular of transfer walking time in the subway station. Then it estimates the parameters by using the method of maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, taking Lianglukou subway station in Chongqing as an example to verify the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：走行时间 数理统计 抽样调查 正态分布 两路口 

分 类 号：U231[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]