基于MNL模型的城市交通方式选择研究  

The Research on the Travel Choice Based on MNL Model

作　　者：代晓明[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2016年第1期33-37,共5页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

摘　　要：交通方式选择模型是交通规划中最主要的模型之一,此研究对于城市交通规划中交通需求的分析以及交通方式的确定都十分关键。交通方式模型的建立和改进是为使模型模拟出城市居民出行方式选择的行为,达到解决实际问题的目的。MNL模型的提出将对交通方式的简单预测和交通方式的合理检验提供一种有效途径。通过分析非集计模型的理论基础,建立基于非集计的交通方式选择模型,采用最大似然函数得出参数的估计值,并对估计值进行检验,最终根据模型计算出各种交通方式选择的概率。The mode split model is one of key models of the traffic planning. The research on the travel mode choice model is vital to the determination of traffic demand analysis and travel mode structure. The establishment and improvement of traffic mode choice model is to make the model of simulating urban residents travel mode choice behavior, to achieve the purpose of solving practical problems. The MNL model will provide a new and effective approach for the estimation of the rationality of travel mode structure and the traffic forecast. The theoretical foundation of the disaggregate model are analyzed in detail and established based on the set of thousands of traffic mode choice model, adopted maximum likelihood function, the estimates of the parameters is obtained, and the estimate for the inspection. Finally, by the substitution model, calculate the probability of all kinds of transportation mode choice.

关 键 词：交通方式选择 非集计模型 MNL模型 广义费用 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]