流动资金需求测算方法研究  

Study on Working Capital Demands Estimation

作　　者：张金昌[1] 杨国丽[2] 周亚平[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100836 [2]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2016年第5期144-160,共17页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"智能服务的技术实现"(批准号12AZD112)

摘　　要：银监会在2010年颁布的《流动资金贷款管理暂行办法》中提出商业银行流动资金贷款需求测算公式。本文研究了银监会测算公式存在的问题,提出了从静态时点和动态新增两个角度进行流动资金需求量测算的新方法。首先,采用"宝钢股份"的财务数据说明了银监会方法和新方法的计算差异并发现仅用一个企业的计算结果很难证明两种方法在预测准确性上是否存在显著差异。然后,用A股制造业企业2010—2014年的大样本财务数据对两种方法的准确性进行了实证检验,从两种方法对资金需求的预测方向一致性看,新方法预测的准确率高于银监会方法,但两种方法的准确率均不高。本文进一步研究发现,上市企业存在较高比例的非理性流动资金借贷行为,这种行为干扰了预测准确性。剔除非理性行为干扰之后,两种方法预测准确率会明显提高,并且两种方法在准确率上的差距也显著缩小。本文的研究结论对商业银行改进流动资金贷款需求量测算办法和企业进行资金需求数量预测均具有重要意义。Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission（CBRC） has issued the＂Interim Measures on Management of Working Capital Eoans＂which provides a method to estimate firm＇s working capital demands by commercial banks.This article analyzes the main defections of the CBRC＇s estimating formula and proposes a new method from static and dynamic views. In order to prove the reliability of the proposed method, we analyze financial data of Baogang company to validate the two methods first of all, then select data of A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2010 to 2014, and make empirical test to compare the accuracy and reliability of the two methods by using Stata software. The empirical results verified that the estimating result of new method proposed for working capital demand is more accurately and reliably than the CBRC recommended approach. But the estimating accuracy of two methods are below 60%. We find that the irrational borrowing behaviors cause the lower accuracy. After eliminating irrational behaviors, the estimating accuracy will be augmented largely and the accuracy gap of two methods had been reduced. The paper has improved the measuring method and has important significance for banks and enterprises to forecast working capital demand.

关 键 词：流动资金需求预测 制造业企业 非理性流动资金贷款 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]