货币政策对西北五省省会城市房价的影响  

The Analysis of Affections of Monetary Policy on the Real Estate Price of the Five Northwestern Provinces

作　　者：郑宁[1,2] 陈立文[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300130 [2]华北理工大学,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《价格月刊》2016年第5期1-5,共5页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金"符合中国国情的住房保障和供应体系研究"(编号:14BJY060);河北省软科学研究计划项目"基于公众需求的保障性住房供给机制研究--以河北省为例"(编号:14456110D);河北省研究生创新资助项目"基于住房支付能力的住房保障需求研究--以京津冀为例"(编号:2015-40)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：在阐述国内外学者相关研究现状的基础上建立了VAR模型,并利用脉冲响应函数分析了贷款利率和货币供给量变化对"丝绸之路经济带"西北五省城市房价的动态影响。结果表明:在短期内提高贷款利率(即实行紧缩货币政策)会对西北五省省会城市房价产生显著影响;在长期内利率政策变化对西北五省省会城市房价的影响并不显著;不论是短期内还是长期内货币供给量变化对西北五省省会城市房价都会产生显著的正向影响。最后提出了相关政策建议。By building the VAR model, the author uses impulse response function to analyze the dynamic effect of mone- tary policy on the price of the Five Northwestern Provinces on the Silk Road Economic Belt＇s real estate market. The result of the demonstration shows in the short term, the tightening of interest rate poncy has an obvious effect on five city＇ s real estate Price. But in the long term, interest rate policy has on obvious effect . No matter in the short term or long term, the change of money supply has a significant positive effect on the price changes in the five cities. Therefore, different monetary policy on the Five Northwestern Provinces on the Silk Road Economic Belt＇ s real estate price has different effects.

关 键 词：货币政策 房价变动 脉冲响应函数 自向量回归模型 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]