从气温余弦拟合曲线浅析主运主气与地面气温均值的关系  

Discussion of the relationship among air temperature, host evolutive phase and host climatic qi by cosine curve model

作　　者：梁礼铿[1] 黎敬波[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州中医药大学,广州510006

出　　处：《中华中医药杂志》2016年第5期2002-2007,共6页China Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine and Pharmacy

基　　金：教育部博士点基金项目(No.20114425110009)~~

摘　　要：目的:通过气温余弦曲线,探讨主运、主气与地面气温均值的关系。方法:统计分析在R3.2.0上进行,对广州、北京60年日平均气温数据分别按照日期、主运、主气分组计算均值并进行余弦曲线拟合及方差分析,并对运气年2012年到2014年进行预测。结果:余弦曲线对各日60年日平均气温均值及年内各个主运、主气平均气温都拟合良好,调整后R2均在0.95以上,同一主气主运下,各个司天组及各个岁运组平均气温差异无统计学意义,预测结果R2均大于0.94,真实值基本在95%CI内。结论:余弦曲线适用于拟合各日60年日平均气温均值及年内各个主运、主气平均气温,并能反映主运主气的稳定性特征、南北方地区的气候寒热差异、气候寒热变化的特征及气候寒热变化的周期特征,同时支持大寒节气为运气年交气日的观点。Objective： To discuss the relationship among air temperature, host evolutive phase（HEP） and host climatic qi（HCQ） by cosine curve model. Methods： All data were processed by R 3.2.0. The mean and standard of air temperatures in Beijing and Guangzhou including 60 years which group by date, HEP and HCQ were computed respectively. Then they were fitted by cosine curve model and analyzed by One-way ANOVA. At last, the temperatures in 2012-2014 were predicted. Results： The mean temperature of date, HEP and HCQ were well fitted by cosine curve model, all of adjust R2 were above 0.95. According to Oneway ANOVA, there was no significant difference among celestial manager qi group and year evolutive phase group while in the same HEP or HCQ. The R2 of predictions were above 0.94 and the real temperatures were almost in 95%CI. Conclusions： Cosine curve model could be used to fit the mean temperature of date, HEP and HCQ. The model could reflect some characteristics of HEP and the HCQ, such as the characteristics of stabilities, regionalism change, climatic change and period. And the models also supported the viewpoint that the origin of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors year was the Great Cold.

关 键 词：主运 主气 气温 余弦 运气学说 

分 类 号：R229[医药卫生—中医基础理论]