我国甘蔗收购价格波动与蔗农增收的关系研究  

Empirical Research on the Relationship between the Fluctuation of the sugarcane Price and the Income of Farmers

作　　者：杨超[1] 韦敬楠 宋维明[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2016年第3期97-100,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家林业局软科学项目:2015-R23

摘　　要：我国甘蔗产区主要位于广西、云南等经济欠发达省份,甘蔗产业发展对于促进蔗农增收具有重要的意义。本文运用VAR模型和EGARCH模型对我国1992-2015年甘蔗收购价格波动与蔗农收益间的关系进行实证分析。研究发现:从脉冲响应和方差分解来看,蔗农的收入变化会引起收购价格较大波动,但是收购价格波动引起的蔗农收入变化则不明显;从EGARCH模型结果来看,甘蔗价格下跌时期蔗农收入显著下降,但是甘蔗价格上升时期蔗农收入却没有显著提高。根据研究结论,提出实施目标价格管理制度、加强对甘蔗价格的监测、优化甘蔗产业生产布局的建议。For some regions, such as Guangxi and Yunnan province, sugarcane industry is important to help the farmers increase their income. Using the data from 1992 to 2015, this paper analyzed the relationship between the purchase price volatility of sugarcane and the income of farmers by VAR model and EGARCH model. The impulse response function and variance decomposition showed that farmers’ benefit weren’t so obvious for the reason of cane prices fluctuation.EGARCH model showed that farmers’ revenue increase non-significantly during sugarcane prices soar while income significantly reduced during prices decline.According to the research conclusions, we believe that the target price system,the price monitoring system and optimizing the industrial layout could stabilize the price.

关 键 词：甘蔗收购价格 蔗农增收 周期性波动 VAR模型 EGARCH模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F323.8