短期国际资本异常流动控制分析——基于中国的实证  

Research on controlling short-term capital abnormal flows in China

作　　者：薛耀文[1] 张艳[2] Jiaqi XUE 张云香[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西师范大学经济与管理学院,临汾041004 [2]山西师范大学数学与计算机科学学院,临汾041004 [3]Department of Electrical Engineering,Stanford University,ca94305

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2016年第5期1118-1127,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71273159)~~

摘　　要：本文从合理渠道与非法隐形渠道角度提出了计算中国短期资本流动量的方法;借鉴水库模型,将资本流动划分为五种测度区间,并提出了相应测度区间控制短期资本流量与流速的思路;在研究了短期资本流入对经济影响有时间滞后性的基础上,本文建立了经济周期不同节点与短期资本流入的匹配关系以及控制短期资本流动的组合思想与方式.最后,在分析与统计中国数据的基础上,预测了目标年度中国短期资本流动水平与异常情况,提出了控制中国短期资本异常流动的建议.Prom the reasonable and illegal channel respectively, the paper puts forward the calculation methods of short-term capital flows. Also it divides the capital flows into five measurable dimensions and raises some thought about measurable dimensions to control the capital flow quality and velocity by referring to reservoir leaching model. This thesis establishes matching relation between economic cycle different nodes and short-term capital inflow, and methods to control short-term capital flow on the basis of the impact which the short-term capital inflow brings the economy a time lag. Finally, this thesis forecasts the level and exceptional conditions of short-term capital flows in China annually, and gives some suggestions to control Chinese short-term capital abnormal flows by making an analysis and statistics to the Chinese data.

关 键 词：洗钱 资本流动 水库模型 控制 

分 类 号：F832.48[经济管理—金融学]