中国碳超载下碳锁定与解锁路径实证研究  

China's carbon lock-in and unlocking in the context of carbon loading

作　　者：汪中华[1] 成鹏飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学经济学院,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第5期909-917,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BMZ057);黑龙江省应用技术研究与开发计划项目(GC14D503);黑龙江省社会科学基金项目(15SHD03)

摘　　要：发展中国家在工业化进程中会出现碳锁定现象。中国处在工业化进程的关键时期,很有必要对碳锁定问题进行深入探讨,选用合适的指标来衡量碳锁定有助于理解碳锁定。本文通过测算1990-2014年中国碳汇量和碳排放量,用两者的差值作为碳超载量,用碳超载率（碳超载量/碳汇量）对碳锁定的程度以及变化趋势做出基本判断,然后利用ECM模型对碳锁定的影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明：（1）以2003年为界限,1990-2002年期间中国未出现碳超载,从2003年开始碳超载为正,以后逐年增加,碳锁定程度越来越严重;（2）降低化石能源消耗、增加技术投入在长期和短期内对碳锁定都有抑制作用,而第二产业和第三产业的发展速度对碳锁定的影响在长期和短期内是相反的;（3）提出在＂十三五＂期间实现中国碳汇量比2014年增加5%-15%的目标,以期在＂十三五＂结束时基本实现中国碳平衡。本研究以丰富中国碳锁定及碳解锁理论研究为侧重点,着重为中国碳锁定程度和碳锁定变化趋势研究提供科学依据,并对中国碳锁定解锁路径提出借鉴性建议。Carbon lock- in phenomenon occurs in the process of industrialization in developing countries.China is in the key period of the industrialization process,it is necessary to make a deep research on carbon lock- in problem,also selecting appropriate indicators will be contribute to understand carbon lock- in better.By measuring the amount of carbon sink and carbon emission in China from 1990 to 2014,the difference between carbon sink and carbon emission was used as the carbon overload,the time and the change tendency of carbon lock- in was judged by the carbon overload ratio（carbon overload/carbon sink）,then used the ECM model to analyze the influencing factors of carbon lock-in.Research results show that：there was no carbon lock-in during the period of 1990-2002,China has been happened carbon lock-in since 2003,and the degree of carbon lockin has been more and more serious;carbon lock- in was inhibited by reducing fossil energy consumption and increasing technology investment in the long and short period,while the growth rate of the second industry and the third industry on carbon lock-in effect in the long and short term is opposite;this paper proposes suggestions that achieving carbon sink growth of 5% ~15% in China in 2020 compared with 2014,we hope that carbon balance can be achieved when the ＂13th Five-Year＂ plan is over.In this study,we focus on the research of carbon lock- in and carbon unlocking theory,especially provide scientific basis for the study of carbon lock-in time and carbon lock-in degree,and put forward some suggestions to the research of carbon lock-in and unlocking path in China.

关 键 词：碳汇量 碳超载 碳锁定 解锁路径 ECM模型 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]