面向有限理性决策的出行者行为研究  

Study on Traveler's Behavior for Bounded-rational Decision-making

作　　者：龙雪琴[1] 宋嘉骐 王建军[1] 关宏志[2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 [2]北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2016年第5期105-110,共6页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(310821151009);中央高校科研业务研究计划项目(310821151008;310821153402)

摘　　要：为了研究突发事件下出行者进行路径选择的行为规律,引入前景理论建立了出行者行为决策模型。首先分析了事故消散时间,建立了事故消散时间模型。然后分析了出行者行为决策过程,搭建了出行者行为决策框架。进一步采用前景理论,分别针对出行者收益和损失,提出了出行者路径选择的效用函数,并采用连续离散的方式对路径效用进行了分析。最后建立了出行者路径选择模型,对出行者行为进行刻画。通过一个仿真算例,在假定的出行场景下,研究了出行者有限理性路径决策行为,分析了期望出行时间对事故消散时间和路径选择结果的影响。采用试验对比的方法,证明了仿真结果和试验结果的一致性,验证了有限理性决策在出行者路径选择领域的适用性。In order to analyze the regularity of traveler＇s route choice behavior under emergency incidents,the traveler＇s behavior decision-making model is established by introducing prospect theory. First,the accident dissipation time is analyzed,and the model of accident dissipation time is established. Then,the traveler＇s behavior decision-making process is analyzed, and the traveler＇s behavior decision-making frame is established. By applying prospect theory,the utility function for traveler＇s route choice is put forward in terms of traveler＇s earning and loss respectively,and the route utility is analysed by using continuous-discretion method. At last,the traveler＇s route choice model is established to describe traveler＇s behavior. A simulation case study is conducted under an assumption scene to research the bounded-rational traveler＇s route decisionmaking behavior and the influence of expect trip time on traffic accident dissipation time and route choice result. A comparative experiment is used to prove the consistence between the simulation result and experiment result,and the applicability of bounded rational decision-making in traveler＇s route choice area.

关 键 词：交通工程 路径选择行为 前景理论 有限理性决策 突发事件 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]