基于CA的多背景生态安全土地空间格局模拟  

Ecological Security Land Use Scenarios Simulation based on CA

作　　者：杨青生[1] 游细斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学地理与旅游学院,广州510230 [2]赣南师范学院地理与规划学院,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《赣南师范学院学报》2016年第3期67-71,共5页Journal of Gannan Teachers' College(Social Science(2))

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40801236)

摘　　要：以城市化快速发展的东莞市为例,采用约束性神经网络元胞自动机,在转换规则中嵌入控制城市发展的变量,引导城市分别向"单中心"和"多中心"模式发展,形成城市沿"市中心"、"市中心——镇中心"紧凑发展的土地利用格局,并对不同城市发展模式的生态安全进行评价.研究结果表明:控制城市沿市中心扩展的"单中心"城市发展格局生态安全指数为0.479,城市用地聚集指数为0.92;控制城市沿市中心和镇中心发展的"多中心"城市发展格局生态安全指数为0.477,城市用地聚集指数为0.640;单中心发展模式的城市生态安全程度最高,城市用地最为集中,多中心发展模式的城市生态安全和城市用地聚集度均比实际(0.383、0.250)高."单中心"和"多中心"的发展模式可以形成城市聚集,乡村生态安全的区域土地利用格局,是未来新型城镇化空间布局的理想形态之一.Cellular Automata（ CA） has been used for simulating urban development recently. Most of the research concentrate on the transition rules of CA and simulate real urban development. Scientists begin to simulate optimized urban development by using CA.For taking scientific basis for urban planning,this paper simulates different urban development scenarios and its environmental effects by using constraint CA in Dongguan City. An artificial neural network（ ANN） calibrated CA model was created for simulating real urban development firstly. The training data is selected from 1988 to 1993 land use types and database. The transition rule is then calibrated by using artificial neural network.. After obtaining the weights of ANN-CA model,the model is then used to simulate urban development from 1993 to 2005. Based on the ANN-CA model,a constraint variable-distance to urban center of distance to town center is embedded into ANN-CA for simulating compact urban development scenarios. Variable,distance to urban center is used to control urban development around urban center and distance to town center is used to control urban development around town center. Then integrated urban land aggregation index and ecological index are used for evaluating urban form and its environmental effects. The result shows that urban center development scenario is the most compact urban form and the best ecologically secure patterns. The value of integrated urban land aggregation index and ecological index are 0. 92,0. 479 respectively. The scenario of town center development is the second compact urban form and ecologically secures patterns. The value of integrated urban land aggregation index and ecological index are 0. 640,0. 477 respectively. The real urban form is the most disaggregation urban form and the ecological security is the worst. The value of integrated urban land aggregation index and ecological index are 0. 383,0. 250 respectively. The compact urban development may be the better urban form for better ecological security.

关 键 词：元胞自动机 城市发展情景 生态安全 东莞市 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]