基于情景的浙江省玉环县台风风暴潮模拟与潜在危险性评估  

Potential hazard assessment of typhoon storm surge based on scenario simulation methodology in Yuhuan County,Zhejiang Province

作　　者：陈洁[1] 宋城城[1,2] 李梦雅[1,2] 王军[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第3期125-135,155,共12页Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71373084;J1310028);上海市教育委员会科研创新重点项目(13ZZ035)

摘　　要：玉环县是浙江沿海台风风暴潮灾害频发、受影响严重的区域之一.本文以1949年以来登陆浙江省气压最低的台风TC0608(桑美)路径为模板,依据玉环县海岸线特征设计了7条平移路径.在此基础上,叠加考虑了4种海平面上升情景,利用MIKE21 FM模型开展了风暴潮模拟与潜在危险性评估研究.结果表明:现状条件下玉环县台风风暴潮漫堤淹没危险性较低,但随着海平面不断上升,其潜在危险性逐渐增大,从玉环县域北侧登陆的3场台风对海平面上升的响应尤其敏感;在同一海平面上升情景下,由玉环县域南侧登陆的台风造成的漫堤淹没现象明显严重于在县域北侧登陆的台风;至2100年,台风风暴潮造成的潜在最大淹没深度为5.44 m,淹没面积达160.75 km^2,占玉环县域总面积的35.93%;玉环县潜在高淹没危险区主要位于县域东南及西侧地势低平地区.研究成果可为玉环县防潮抗灾部署提供科学依据.Typhoon storm surges are responsible for most of the damage caused by oceanic disasters in Yuhuan,Zhejiang Province.Considering the coastline features of Yuhuan County,7translation paths were designed based on the path of TC0608（Saomai）,which formed the lowest central pressure at the moment of landfall in Zhejiang since 1949.In consideration of the 7 translation typhoon paths and sea level rise,storm surges in 28 compound scenarios were simulated by using MIKE21 FM for potential impacts analysis.The results showed that the possibility of overtopping inundation due to typhoon storm surges was quite low under the present condition.However,the impacts obviously became more serious as sea level rising,and the three typhoons landing in the north of Yuhuan were especially sensitive in terms of responding to the sea level rose.In scenarios with the same sea level rise value,typhoons landing in the south of Yuhuan caused more serious inundation than those landing in the north part.In 2100,the largest water depth would reach 5.44 m and the inundation area would be 160.75 km^2,accounting for about35.93%of the total area of Yuhuan.The potential high-risk inundation areas are mainly distributed in the southeastern and western part of Yuhuan,with a relatively low elevation.The results could offer reference for making adaptation strategies and engineering countermeasures for future extreme storm surges disasters in Yuhuan County.

关 键 词：情景模拟 台风风暴潮 MIKE21 FM 危险性评估 玉环县 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]