基于突变理论的油库事故应急救援能力评价方法研究  

Study on based catastrophe theory method of assessing emergency rescue capability for oil depot accidents

作　　者：曾跃辉[1] 姚安林[1,2] 吴瑶晗 罗珊[1] 江文[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院,四川成都610500 [2]油气消防四川省重点实验室,四川成都610500 [3]中国石化天然气川气东送管道分公司,湖北武汉430223

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2016年第4期84-89,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK06B01-11-01)

摘　　要：为有效评价油库事故应急救援能力水平,识别系统的薄弱环节,基于自然灾害应急救援系统预防为主、防治结合的理念,建立油库事故应急救援能力分阶段评价方法。建立灾前危机预防与预警能力、灾中危机反应与处置能力及灾后评价与恢复能力的油库事故应急救援能力评价指标体系;应用突变级数评价法分析中国西南某大型油库事故在灾前、灾中、灾后及事故总体应急救援能力。结果表明,灾前、灾中及灾后的应急能力在油库事故应急救援过程中具有同等重要地位。To effectively assess the level of oil depot emergency rescue capability and identify the weak links of the system, a novel stage-by-stage assessment method was worked out based on the advanced concepts of natural disaster emergency rescue system. An assessment index system was established for emergency rescue capability of oil depot accident, taking into a ccount crisis prevention and warning capacity before disaster, crisis response and disposal capacity during the disaster and at last the assessment and recovery capability after the accident. The assessment method was applied to a big oil depot in the southwest of China. The results show that the depot has a relatisely good overal emergency rescue capability, and that the predisaster preveution and early warning capability, during-disaster response capability and post-disaster recovery capability are equally important to the emergency rescue process of the oil depot.

关 键 词：油库事故 应急救援能力 评价方法 突变理论 突变级数评价法 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]