营运客车换道越线时间预测方法研究  

Study on time of line crossing prediction method for operating passenger

作　　者：黎莉[1] 黄晓梦[1] 郭艳君[1,2] 王畅[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安710064 [2]辽宁省交通高等专科学校物流管理系,辽宁沈阳110122

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2016年第4期90-95,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51178053;61374196);教育部长江学者与创新团队支持计划项目(IRT1286);国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAG01B05);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(310822151028)

摘　　要：为研究营运客车换道安全性,确定营运客车换道越线时间,建立营运客车换道越线时间预测方法。利用图像识别传感器获取营运客车换道过程横向表征参数,基于6次多项式,拟合不同速度条件下的营运客车换道轨迹。同时采用数据库对比分析方法,建立营运客车换道越线时间预测模型,对比换道越线时间预测值与真实值。结果表明,采用6次多项式拟合的营运客车换道轨迹,拟合系数均在0.993以上。越线时间真实值和预测值一致率为62.5%,绝对误差均在±0.2 s以内,均值为-0.0175 s,且两者之间存在明显的正态分布关系。由预测模型得到的越线时间稍小于真实值。In order to study the safety of operating passenger, and determine the time of line crossing, a method was worked out for predicting time of line crossing. Lateral characterization parameters of the operating passenger were obtained, using image recognition sensor.The track was fitted based on 6 polynomials for different speeds. At the same time, a model was built for predicting time of line crossing for operating passenger based on database comparison analysis method. A comparison was made between the predicted time and the reality. The results show that the absolute errors between the predicted values and the reality are in the range of ±0.2 s,and that the predicted values are slightly smaller than the real values.

关 键 词：营运客车 换道 越线时间 拟合 预测 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]