城市居民食物氮消费变化特征与趋势预测——以重庆市为例  

Urban Residents Food Nitrogen Consumption Dynamic Analysis and Trend Prediction of Food Nitrogen Consumption by Urban Residents:A Case Study of Chongqing City,China

作　　者：李彦旻 冼超凡 肖强[3] 文志[2] 徐刚[1] 欧阳志云[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085 [3]西南大学生命科学学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第6期131-135,共5页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点基金(41030744)

摘　　要：城市作为全球氮热点区域,其中城市居民食物氮消费对全球氮循环的影响越来越显著,研究其变化特征及趋势,对推动城市低氮生活具有重要意义.以重庆市为例,分析1992年-2012年期间全市城市居民食物氮消费的动态变化,并结合灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,预测未来10年重庆市城市居民食物氮消费总量.研究结果表明:重庆市城市居民食物氮消费从1992年-2012年由22 130.348t增加到60 196.306t,各类食物氮消费结构中粮食消费呈不断下降趋势,蔬菜、乳制品、禽肉类的食物氮消费则呈现上升趋势.模型GM(1,1)预测显示,重庆市城市居民氮消费2022年可能超过90 000t,将进一步威胁城市环境安全,并且人均可支配收入、人均GDP以及高等学历人数比重对其具有较显著的影响.Urban city as a global hotspots of nitrogen,the nitrogen consumption of urban residents food more and more significantly impact on the global nitrogen cycle.The food consumption by inhabitant in urban ecosystem is gradually significantly impacts global nitrogen cycling.The study of the variation characteristics and trends is significantly impacts for global nitrogen cycling.Taking Chongqing city as case study,we analyzed the dynamics of the food nitrogen consumption by urban inhabitant from 1992 to 2012,and predicted the future trend of them in the next decade based on the application of the gray system GM（1,1）.The results showed that the total food nitrogen consumption by urban inhabitant in Chongqing increased from 22 130.348 tin 1992to 60 196.306 tin 2012.The trends of nitrogen consumption from vegetable,meat and dairy products presented increasing,while the trend of grain appeared decreasing.According to the result of GM（1,1）programmer forecast,the urban nitrogen consumption in 2022 will reach around 90000 t,threatening the urban environment.The correlation analysis showed that food nitrogen consumption had positive correlated with disposable income per capita;GDP and the proportion of numbers of higher education,whereas had negative correlated with urban Engel coefficient.

关 键 词：食物氮消费 城市化 灰色系统GM(1 1) 重庆市 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]