青海省冬季最低气温订正方法研究  

Study on the Revised Method of Minimum Winter Temperature in Qinghai Province

作　　者：李有宏[1] 韦淑侠[1] 贾红莉[1] 马琼[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海省气象台,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《青海农林科技》2016年第2期15-19,86,共6页Science and Technology of Qinghai Agriculture and Forestry

摘　　要：本文利用统计学等方法统计分析青海省43个气象站点2010至2015年逐日逐时气温、最低气温及出现的时间等资料后发现：1.逐日（20-20时）最低气温出现的时间有明显的变化规律,绝大多数出现在5-10时之间,季节性明显,冬季偏晚,多在9时左右,夏季偏早,多在6时左右;2.为简便起见以旬为时间单位做统计分析,发现各站逐日7-10时之间最低气温与06时气温具有较明显的线性关系,根据该线性关系,利用逐日6时气温做7-10时之间最低气温预报,再加以订正系数后即作为初次预报值,统计发现该线性差值也有明显的季节变化,冬季偏大,夏季偏小;3.根据初次预报值对中央气象台24h最低气温（8-8时）预报进行订正,订正方法是若中央气象台给某站最低气温预报值较对应的初次预报值偏高,则以初次预报值代替之作为该站24h最低气温（8-8时）预报值;4.回代结果显示预报准确率的订正结果随季节不同变化较大,冬季（12、1、2）正订正明显,春季（3、4、5）和秋季（9、10、11）是正少负多,夏季（6、7、8）均为负订正,全年平均为弱的负订正。Hourly and daily temperature, minimum temperature and the time it occurred from 2010 to 2015 at 43 meteorological stations in Qinghai Province are analyzed by statistical method in this research,the results are as follows ： 1. The time of daily （20 - 20） minimum temperature occurred has significant variation. Most of them appeared between 5 - 10 and has obvious seasonal variation, occurring time is later in winter, at around 9 o＇ clock, earlier in summer, at around 6 o＇ clock. 2. Analyzing in ten - day periods, there is a significant linear relationship between daily minimum temperature for 7 -10 and temperature at 6 o＇clock, according the relationship, minimum temperature between 7 - 10 o＇ clock can be forecasted using temperature at 6 o＇ clock, it can be regarded as the initial forecast value after adding the revised coefficient. It indicated that the linear difference also has obvious seasonal variation statistically,larger in winter and smaller in summer;3. Minimum temperature for 24 hours （8 - 8 ） forecasted by National Meteorological Center of CMA is revised according to the initial forecast value. The revising method is if the initial forecast value which corresponding to minimum temperature forecasted by National Meteorological Center of CMA at a station is high, using the ini- tial forecast value instead of minimum temperature forecasted as the final minimum temperature （8 - 8 ） for 24 hours at this station. 4. Return test shows that the revised results of forecast accuracy change largely with seasons. Significant positive revise appeared in inter（ 12,1,2） ,positive is more than negative in spring （3,4,5） and autumn （9,10,11 ）,revise results are all negative in summer （6,7,8） and the annual average revision showed weak negative.

关 键 词：青海省 最低气温 预报 订正方法 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]