新兴技术预测特征的分析与启示——以《地平线报告(高等教育版)》为例  

Analysis and Enlightenments from Forecast Features of Emerging Technologies——A Case Study of Higher Education Edition of Horizon Report

作　　者：吴兰岸[1,2] 刘延申[1,3] 刘怡[3] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学国家数字化学习工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430079 [2]玉林师范学院物理科学与工程技术学院,广西玉林537000 [3]华中师范大学教育信息化研究中心,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《现代教育技术》2016年第6期20-26,共7页Modern Educational Technology

基　　金：华中师范大学优秀博士学位论文培育计划项目"信息技术融入儿童早期教育的实践与研究"(项目编号:2015YBZD040);玉林师范学院2014年教师教育研究专项课题"教学设计师协同创作与创新实践研究"(项目编号:2014XJJSJY19)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：文章从前后逻辑、学术研究专家、实际应用者三种视域出发,对《地平线报告》中新兴技术的预测一致性及预测命中率、新兴技术被应用率进行了考察。结果表明:《地平线报告》中新兴技术预测具有预测一致性低、预测命中率高、新兴技术被应用率低等三大特征。研究分析了形成这些特征的主要原因,认为《地平线报告》中新兴技术预测具有较高的可信度,由此获得提升我国教育信息化研究与实践水平的启示并提出了建议。From the perspectives of logical sequence, academic researchers and applicators, this paper investigated the forecast consistency, hit rate, and the application rate of emerging technologies adopted in Horizon Report. The results shown that the forecast of emerging technologies in Horizon Report possesed three features which were low forecast consistency, high hit ratio and low utility ratio of emerging technologies. This study also analysed the primary resorts forming these characteristics, .believed that the forecast of emerging technologies in Horizon Report has high reliability, acquired several enlightenments and offer some proposals for promoting the research and practice level of educational information in our country.

关 键 词：《地平线报告》 新兴技术 预测特征 高等教育 

分 类 号：G40-057[文化科学—教育学原理]