基于证据推理的应急物流绩效评价方法研究  

Research on Emergency Logistics Performance Evaluation Approach Based on Evidential Reasoning

作　　者：张乃平[1,2] 姚峣[1,2] 陈龙[1,2] 王喆[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北省危机与灾害应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《物流科技》2016年第7期32-37,共6页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目;项目编号:15ZDB168;国家自然科学基金青年项目;项目编号:71501151;湖北省自然科学基金项目;项目编号:2015CFB593;教育部人文社科基金项目;项目编号:15YJCZH039

摘　　要：针对应急物流具有不确定性、弱经济性等特点,提出一种基于证据推理方法的应急物流绩效评估模型。该方法利用专家给出的评价信息构造置信规则库,在确定下层指标基本概率分配函数的基础上,通过多次融合评价指标的证据信息来确定应急物流绩效水平所属等级,有效解决了其绩效评价过程中部分指标评价信息不完全甚至没有任何评估信息的情形。给出一个荆江防洪配送应急资源实例,证实了将证据推理方法引入到应急物流绩效评价是可行和有效的。Considering emergency logistics with uncertainty and weak economy, this paper proposes a model of emergency logistics performance evaluation based on evidential reasoning. In the approach, the belief-rule base is constructed by evaluation information from experts. Based on the assignment of the basic probability assignment function of the lower-level indexes, the evaluation evidence information is multiple fused to confirm the level of emergency logistics performance. In the performance evaluation process, the treatment effectively deals with the issues that the indexes have incomplete information, and even without any assessment information. The effectiveness and practicability of the emergency logistics performance evaluation approach based on evidential reasoning are confirmed with a case study of emergency resources distribution in Jingjiang flood control.

关 键 词：证据推理 不确定性 应急物流 绩效评价 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]