基于全球导航卫星系统资料的短时降水预报  

Short-term precipitation forecasting based on the data from GNSS observation

作　　者：姚宜斌[1,2] 赵庆志[1] 李祖锋[3] 何亚东[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学测绘学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]武汉大学地球空间环境与大地测量教育部重点实验室,湖北武汉430079 [3]中国电建西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,陕西西安710065

出　　处：《水科学进展》2016年第3期357-365,共9页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41274022);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2013AA122502)~~

摘　　要：根据大气对天顶对流层延迟(Zenith Tropospheric Delay,ZTD)影响的变化特征,提出并实现了一种无气象数据短时降水预报的方法。利用2015年5—6月浙江连续运行参考站(Continuously Operating Reference Station,CORS)网的全球导航卫星系统(Global Navigation Satellite System,GNSS)观测数据和对应每小时的降水量信息对该方法进行验证,结果表明该方法能够预测出80%以上的降水事件,与国际上利用气象数据根据大气可降水量(Precipitable Water Vapor,PWV)预测出的结果精度相当。表明脱离地面实测气象数据仅利用ZTD对短时降水进行预报可行有效,对于降水的短时预报具有重要研究意义和应用价值。The Precipitable Water Vapor（ PWV） derived from Global Navigation Satellite System（ GNSS） can be used for the study of precipitation forecasting,but it needs the support of ground measured meteorological data. In order to solve this problem,a method of precipitation forecasting without using the ground measured meteorological data is proposed and realized in this paper based on the characteristics of Zenith Tropospheric Delay（ ZTD） affected by atmosphere. It is validated using the data from Continuously Operating Reference Station（ CORS） of Zhejiang province and hourly precipitation during the period from May to June,2015. The he results show that the proposed method is capable of forecasting 80% of rainfalls,which is equal to the results obtained based on PWV with meteorological data.This indicates that the short-term forecasting method based on the ZTD without considering the measured meteorological data is effective and feasible,which shows significant research and application value for short-term precipitation forecasting.

关 键 词：全球导航卫星系统 天顶对流层延迟 气象数据 连续运行参考站 降水预报 

分 类 号：P412.13[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]