基于ESDA-GIS的新疆能源碳排放空间差异动态演化分析  

Dynamic evolution of spatial disparity of energy carbon emissions in Xinjiang based on ESDA-GIS

作　　者：刘晓婷[1] 陈闻君[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学经济学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2016年第3期678-685,共8页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区研究生科研创新项目(XJGRI2015119);2014年国家社科基金项目(14BJL050)

摘　　要：基于2002-2014年新疆能源碳排放数据,采用Arc GIS9.3,运用标准差椭圆与ESDA相结合的方法深入剖析了新疆能源碳排放空间差异动态演变特征,结果表明:新疆各地、州、市能源碳排放具有显著的空间自相关性;热点和次热点区主要集中分布在北疆地区,且呈现不断缩小的趋势,而次冷点和冷点区域范围则不断扩大;能源碳排放呈现出东北—西南、西北—东南的空间分布格局,标准差椭圆呈现出逐渐向南疆地区移动的趋势,以昌吉地区为核心,范围包括了新疆能源碳排放主体地区,能源碳排放重心呈现东南—东北—东北方向的变动趋势;最后,基于得出的结论提出相应的解决对策,旨在为实现新疆经济、能源、环境的协调发展建言献策。With the spatial variation function of spatial statistical software ArcGIS9.3, the paper studied deeply on the characteristic of spatial pattern and the dynamic evolution of spatial disparity about energy carbon emission in Xinjiang during 2002-2014. Results show as follows：（1） the value of Moran＇s I was negative in 2002-2003 and 2005-2007, indicating a significant spatial difference of carbon emissions among different states of Xinjiang. The carbon emission among states overall showed a stronger correlation during the study period.（2） Hot areas fluctuated, but mainly centered on the Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Muntains and South Slope Industry Zone Tianshan Muntains. Over time, the sub-cold areas and cold areas expanded gradually, but the hot areas declined. In the view of carbon emission scale, there was obvious disparity among states in Xinjiang, implying that there was still a long way to coordinate the development of economy, energy and environment.（3） The energy emission showed northeast to southwest, and northwest to southeast spatial distribution patterns. The standard deviation ellipse moved towards southern area in Xinjiang, with Changji being the core area and the main regions of carbon emission included. The energy emission gravity reflects a trend of southeast-northeast-southwest change. Finally, some countermeasures were proposed to solve this problem. For one thing, government should emphasize the spatial correlation function in the process of green, low carbon and recycle development, and establish scientific and reasonable energy management policy according to the spatial difference of energy emission. For another thing, government should make scientific and reasonable energy development strategy planning and design based on the top national energy planning in combination with the regional reality.

关 键 词：能源碳排放 ESDA-GIS 空间格局 空间差异 新疆 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]