基于动态指数平滑模型的降雨诱发型滑坡预测  

Rainfall-induced Landslide Prediction Based on Dynamic Exponential Smoothing Model

作　　者：段功豪[1] 牛瑞卿[1] 赵艳南[1] 张凯翔[1] 咬登魁 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)地球物理与空间信息学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]安徽省地质环境监测总站,安徽合肥230001

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（信息科学版）》2016年第7期958-962,共5页Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家863计划(2012AA121303);国家973计划(2011CB710601);国土资源部三峡库区三期地质灾害防治重大科学研究(SXKY3-3-2)~~

摘　　要：为了快速而准确地分析降雨型滑坡的变形趋势,以指数平滑法为数学基础,从滑坡的实际演化阶段出发,建立外界主要诱发因素与模型参数的关联,引入月累积降雨量作为模型参数动态评估因子,对白家包滑坡90期累积位移数据进行了拟合及预测。最终拟合的累计位移平均绝对误差和相关系数分别为11.346和0.933。与传统的静态参数方法相比,这种方法更符合降雨型滑坡发展的一般规律,预测精度更高。We analyze the accuracy trends in landslide deformation,based on the exponential smoothing method and the practical stage of evolution landslide.We establish a connection between the main predisposing factor and model parameters,introducing monthly cumulative rainfall as the evaluation factor for the dynamic model parameter.We use cumulative displacement data from Baijiabao landslide for fitting and forecasting.The result shows that the absolute error and correlation coefficients in our final modal were 11.346 and 0.933.Compared with the conventional method using static parameters,the proposed more in line with the general laws of development of rainfall-induced landslides,and is more accurate.

关 键 词：指数平滑法 动态参数 滑坡 诱发因素 预测 

分 类 号：P258[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]