中国地区能源强度与经济的同步收敛性研究  

The Simultaneous Convergence of Energy Intensity and Economy in China

作　　者：陈迅[1] 王春宝[1] 张勇[1] 蒲勇健[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044 [2]重庆大学可持续发展研究院,重庆400044

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2016年第3期216-223,共8页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大资助项目(12&ZD209);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(CDJXS12021106);重庆市"两江学者"计划专项经费特聘教授资助项目

摘　　要：各地区一直致力于缩小经济发展差距,然而作为经济发展的关键要素,能源强度及其收敛性也是至关重要的。如果地区能源强度与经济能够同时趋于收敛,那么经济发展中能源消耗总量控制的目标则是可行的。本文基于中国31个省份1997-2011年的数据,通过空间面板模型,实证分析了地区经济的收敛性以及能源强度与经济的同步收敛性。研究结果表明,中国地区经济存在条件β收敛性,并且收敛速度达到每年1.98%-2.12%;伴随着地区经济收敛,能源强度也存在显著的收敛性,而且收敛轨迹呈现螺旋状;两个同步收敛过程中,地区经济收敛过程大约会提升0.02%的能源强度增长率,从而会提高能源强度的收敛水平,不过这一效应并不明显;而且,地区经济增长率和能源强度增长率均具有一定的正向外溢效应,但前者更突出。最后,基于研究结论,本文认为能源消费总量非增长目标具有现实可行性,宏观层面可以形成能源强度与能源消费总量双控机制,地方则可以因地制宜步入能源强度与经济同步收敛的路径当中。Regions in China have always been committed to reducing the economic development gap. However, energy intensity and its convergence are also key elements of economic development. The region＇s energy intensity （EI） and economy tend to converge simultaneously. Energy conservation and reduction of regional economic disparities are two aspects of the same development process, which means that non-growth target of total energy consumption in the economic development is feasible. Based on Markandya et al.＇s （2006） study, our research constructed two spatial panel econometric models for inspecting conditional convergence of regional economy and simultaneous convergence between regional E1 and economic growth. The study collected data from 31 provinces of China in from years 1997 to 2011. Overall, this paper is mainly organized into four parts. The first part is introduction and literature review. The second is model construction. The third is an empirical analysis of economic convergence and simultaneous convergence of EI and economy. The main conclusions are summarized in the last part as follows： I. Regional economic growth in China shows conditional beta convergence at a rate of 1.98% to 2.12 % per annum. Meanwhile, the rapid economic growth in adjacent areas has a significant positive spillover effect on certain areas, which will stimulate the region for faster economic growth. II. There is also a significant convergence characteristic for regional El in China. Regional El presents one kind of spiral convergence trajectory for the same EI level and growth rate. However, for a certain area the positive spillover effect of EI growth in adjacent areas is not obvious. III. The convergence process of regional economy has a weak and positive effect on increasing at about 0.02% rate per year for El and EI eonvergence. This effect will not only influence the process of EI convergence, but also the convergence level of EI. Based on the above conclusions, we propose two policy implications. First, we can gr

关 键 词：能源强度 经济增长 收敛性 空间面板模型 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]