基于SWAT模型的钦江流域径流对气候变化的响应研究  

A study on runoff responses to climate change in Qinjiang River Basin based on SWAT model

作　　者：李鸿儒[1,2] 卢远[1,2] 何文[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]广西师范学院地理科学与规划学院,南宁530001 [2]北部湾环境演变与资源利用省部共建教育部重点实验室,南宁530001

出　　处：《环保科技》2016年第3期1-4,22,共5页Environmental Protection and Technology

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目(2015GXNSFAA139234)

摘　　要：为定量分析钦江流域气候变化对径流的影响,基于流域DEM、土地利用、土壤、气象水文等数据,构建研究区SWAT分布式水文模型,以径流实测数据对模型进行校准和验证,并在此基础上,假定25种气候方案组合,分析1990—2008年不同气温和降水情景下流域逐月均流量的变化。结果表明:率定期和验证期NS系数>0.85,相关系数R2>0.9,所建立的分布式模型能较好的模拟钦江流域的月径流变化;降水量每增加10%,逐月均流量增加165.04 m^3,流域径流量随降水的增加而增大;温度每减少1℃,逐月均流量增加8.49 m^3,流域径流量随温度的减少而增大;流域径流量对降水量的依赖程度要强于温度的依赖程度,降水是影响流域水资源变化的主要驱动因子。To quantitatively analyze the impacts of climate variability on the runoff in Qinjiang River Basin,a SWAT distributed hydrological model in the watershed is built,based on data with regard to the digital elevation models of the watershed,land use,and soil types as well as meteorology,and then model was calibrated and validated with observed runoff data. On that basis,we analyzed the change of the monthly average runoff responses to an assumption under scenarios with 25 different climate combinations from the year 1990 to 2008. The results show that the correlation coefficients R2 exceeded 0. 9,Nash- suttclife coefficient exceeded 0. 85,the model is appropriate for simulating monthly average runoff change in the watershed; monthly average runoff increased 165. 04 m^3 as the annual rainfall increased 10%; monthly average runoff increased about 8. 49 m^3 as the temperature decreased 1℃. The monthly average monthly runoff was positively correlated with precipitation and was negatively correlated with temperature. The degree of dependence of runoff on precipitation is stronger than that on the temperature. The precipitation is the most important driving factor for runoff change in the watershed.

关 键 词：SWAT 气候变化 径流 钦江流域 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]