从科技论文数量和内容看自然灾害风险度评估方法的转变  

Transformation of Natural Disaster Risk Assessment Method Based on Number and Content of Scientific Papers

作　　者：李宁[1,2,3] 王烨[1,3] 张正涛[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第3期8-14,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于多维联合分布理论的灾害风险评估模型研究"(41171401);中央高校基本科研业务专项资金资助;国家重大科学研究计划"全球变化与环境风险演变过程与综合评估模型"(2012CB955402)

摘　　要：灾害风险评估是灾害管理的有效手段之一,如何使评估的内容更加贴近灾害管理的需求是我们关注的焦点。通过统计20年来自然灾害主流期刊的251篇有关自然灾害风险评估的文献,将风险度计量方法归纳为两种,一是指标综合风险度,二是损失概率风险度。系统地总结了两种方法应用数量的总体占比和发展趋势,并分析其变化原因。结果显示,从自然灾害系统的角度出发,考虑到致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性和承灾体暴露度的求解指标综合风险度的论文占比53%,数目逐年上升;关注灾害可能性与后果的严重程度的求解损失概率风险度的论文占比23%,2006年以来有较大的上升趋势。应用损失概率风险度方法的论文数量的快速上升显示研究内容从风险识别向着减少损失的风险评价发生转变。这表明中国正有更多的学者在关注求解灾害损失概率的风险度。Risk assessment is one of the effective means to disaster management. How to make the content of assessment more close to the demand of disaster management is the focus of this article. We counted 251 natural disaster risk literatures in 20 years mainstream journals and divided the risk measurement into two kinds,one is the risk degrees with index comprehensive,and the second is the risk degrees with risk loss probability. It systematically summarizes the number proportion and trend of applied methods of these literatures,and analyzes the reasons for such changes. Results show that the index comprehensive method considering from the natural disaster system,which includes hazard,vulnerability and exposure,approach 53% more greatly,the article number increased year by year. The proportion of literatures considering loss probability paying attention to the hazard possibility and consequences is 23% and it rised rapidly from 2006. The fast increase in the number of literatures using the second method shows the research content is changing from risk identification to risk evaluation for reducing losses. More and more scholars in China are focusing on solving the risk degree of disaster loss probability.

关 键 词：自然灾害风险 自然灾害系统 损失概率 易损性 评估方法 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]