石羊河流域农户的气候变化适应策略选择  

Famers' choice of adaptation strategies to climate change in Shiyang River Basin

作　　者：赵雪雁[1] 王亚茹[1] 张钦[1] 雒丽[1] 薛冰[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,辽宁沈阳110016

出　　处：《西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第4期127-134,共8页Journal of Northwest Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41361106;41471116);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-11-0910);甘肃省高校基本科研业务费资助项目

摘　　要：基于石羊河流域503户农户的调查数据,分析气候变化对农户生计的影响,以及农户所采取的气候变化适应策略,并运用二元logistic回归模型分析影响农户适应策略选择的关键因素.结果表明,气候变化导致石羊河流域土地生产能力下降,水资源短缺,农户家庭支出增多,农户健康受到威胁;石羊河上游地区农户倾向于选择被动适应策略减轻气候变化的负面影响,而中下游地区农户则倾向于选择主动适应策略;在影响农户主要适应策略选择的因素中,农户家庭规模、耕地面积、牲畜数量、人均收入以及对气温变化的感知是影响农户采取品种改良策略的关键因素,成年劳动力受教育水平是影响农户采取调整生产结构策略的关键因素,户主性别和受教育程度、家庭规模、耕地面积、领导能力、对周围人的信任、获得信贷机会是影响农户采取增加农牧业应急投入策略的关键因素,户主性别和年龄、获得信贷机会、农户对气温变化的感知是影响农户采取外出务工策略的关键因素.Based on the survey data of 503 famers in Shiyang River Basin,this paper analyzed the impact of climate change on famers households＇ livelihood and famers＇ choice of adaptation strategies.Regression of binary logistic is employed to analyze the factors affecting their choice of adaptation strategies.It is found that climate change mainly caused a decline in land productivity,water shortages,increased household spending,the threats to famers＇ health in Shiyang River basin;in the face of the negative impact of climate change on the farmers＇ livelihood,famers tend to choose passive adaptation strategies in the upper Shiyang River basin,farmers in the middle-lower tend to slightly select the active adaptation strategies;then,factors such as household size,arable land,the amount of livestock,the per capita income and farmers＇perception of the variation of temperature significantly affect the choice of variety improvement.The education level of adult＇labor force affects the choice of adjusting the mode of production.Gender and education level of household head,household size,arable land,leadership,credit and loan availability affect the choice of increasing emergency investment in agriculture and animal husbandry. Gender and age of household,loan availability and farmers＇perception of the variation of temperature affect the choice of migrant.

关 键 词：适应策略 气候变化 二元logistic回归模型 农户 石羊河流域 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]