经济结构、增长方式与环境污染的内在关联研究——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的实证分析  

Intrinsic correlation among economic structure, growth mode and environmental pollution—Empirical analysis based on the TVP-VAR model

作　　者：张同斌[1] 李金凯[2] 程立燕[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学国际经济贸易学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2016年第7期2230-2240,共11页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71303035);辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持计划(WJQ2013025)

摘　　要：基于对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)方法分解影响环境污染的经济因素,利用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型研究了各因素在不同时点、不同提前期对污染物排放的动态冲击特征.结果表明,技术进步具有提高企业生产率以及提升企业产品清洁度的双重效果,产生的创新补偿效应降低了污染排放.我国以煤炭为主的能源消费结构和煤炭消耗产生不容易累积的烟煤型污染物,使得能源结构引致的污染效应在当期最为明显,且持续期较短.能源利用效率的大幅提升有效降低了污染物排放,同时也呈现了一定的反弹效应.产业结构对环境污染的影响逐渐增强、经济规模扩大对于环境污染的冲击具有较强的持续性.合理控制结构因素和规模因素对污染物排放的影响,成为了降低污染水平的重要环节.This paper analyzed the economic factors that contribute to the pollution of the environment using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index （LMDI） approach. Based on the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto-Regression （TVP-VAR） model, we investigated the impulse responses of those factors at different time points and different lead time. The results showed that technical progresses not only improved the productivity of enterprises but also promoted less-polluted production. The innovative compensation effect reduced pollution emissions. In China, coal combustion is a major component of energy production which makes coals smoke pollution currently the most significant source of environmental pollution caused by the energy structure. The rapidly increase of energy efficiency considerably reduced pollution emissions, but also showed a certain rebound effect. There were two important reasons hindering the radical improvement of environmental pollution-the unbalanced industrial structure and the expanding economic scale. Therefore, it is high time to reasonably control the structural factors and scale factors which are crucial ways of reducing pollution emissions.

关 键 词：经济结构 技术进步 环境污染 时变参数向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]