基于灰色系统模型的山西省物流需求预测分析  

Prediction Analysis of Logistics Demand in Shanxi Province Based on Grey System Model

作　　者：邱慧[1] 黄解宇[1] 董亚兰[2] 

机构地区：[1]运城学院经济管理系,山西运城044000 [2]运城学院应用数学系,山西运城044000

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2016年第13期66-70,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(12YJA790050);山西省重点扶持学科管理科学与工程学科项目(XK-2013005);运城学院科研基金(SWSX-201304;XK-2014036;XK-2014039;XK-2014040)

摘　　要：选取山西省2007-2013年的货运周转量、全省生产总值、人均生产总值、进出口总额、公路里程、铁路营业里程、公路载货汽车拥有量等10个影响因素,利用灰色关联分析对影响山西省物流发展的这些影响因素进行分析,结果显示人均生产总值对山西省物流发展的影响力度最大,选取货运周转量为特征因素,人均生产总值为其相关因素,利用灰色预测模型GM(1,2)模型,对山西省未来3年的物流需求进行预测.预测结果显示:模型具有较高的预测精度,对山西省物流的规划和制2发展战略起到参考作用.Data are selected from Shanxi province 2007 to 2013 of freight turnover, the province＇s GDP, per capita GDP, the total import and export volume, highway mileage, railway mileage, highway truck ownership, etc, 10 influential factors. By the grey correla- tionl analysis model, these influential factors that affect the logistics development in Shanxi Province were analyzed. The results show that the per capita GDP have had the largest impact on the logistics development in Shanxi Province. Choose the freight turnover as char- acteristic data, the per capita GDP as relevant factors, based on the grey forecasting model GM（1, 2） , to predict the next 3 years in Shanxi Province Logistics demand. The results show that model has high prediction accuracy and play a reference role in logistics planning and development strategies in Shanxi.

关 键 词：物流需求 灰色关联分析 GM(1 2)模型 预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F299.27