气候变化与国家安全风险分析关键技术探索  

Exploring of the key technology in climate change and national security risk analysis

作　　者：李琦[1,2] 张成[1] 冯逍[1] 范俊翔 朱亚杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学数字地球工作室,北京100871 [2]北京大学智慧城市研究中心,北京100871

出　　处：《测绘科学》2016年第7期1-4,27,共5页Science of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC20B06)

摘　　要：如何量化与认知气候变化对国家安全产生的巨大风险已经成为国内外首脑高峰会议的热点之一。IPCC的报告综合了千余名科学家与专家对气候变化包括气象灾害、粮食安全、生态系统、水资源等多个领域在内的风险评估的整理、分类和分析,但大多尚处于单项领域的研究,亟须进行系统的建模和全面的风险分析。该文提出了CyberGIS模型方法,探讨对国家安全风险问题的参数化建模和形式化表达。How to quantify and cognitive huge risks of climate change on national security has become one of the hot spot of domestic and foreign leaders summit. The IPCC report combines classification and analysis of thousands of scientists in risk assessment including meteorological disasters to climate change, food security, ecosystem, water resources, and other fields, but still in single field study, lacks the quantitative analysis of the system. In this paper, based on the building of CyberGIS Model, study elimate change in the national security risk assessment for review in the field, and model analysis of the mul- tidisciplinary comprehensive risk index.

关 键 词：气候变化 国家安全 风险评估 CyberGIS⑩模型 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]