离场航空器四维航迹预测及不确定性分析  

4D Trajectory Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis for Departure Aircraft

作　　者：张军峰[1] 葛腾腾[1] 陈强[1] 王菲[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报》2016年第4期800-806,共7页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401072);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20130814);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(NS2013064)

摘　　要：为了加速基于轨迹运行概念的实施,提出了基于连续动态模型与离散动态模型的航迹预测方法,并将航空器离场分为起飞与爬升两个阶段,实现离场航空器四维轨迹预测.通过深入分析模型构建、航空器意图、初始状态、性能参数以及环境信息等因素,降低了四维航迹预测的不确定性,提高了预测精度.以国内执飞ZSPDZUCK的CQH8867航班为实例进行验证,考虑了起飞质量、爬升顶点信息以及风速风向等对航迹预测的影响,以位置误差与时间误差作为评价指标,研究结果表明:本文提出的算法可以将到达离港点时刻的误差控制在1 min以内,满足空中交通管理的需求.In order to accelerate the implementation of trajectory-based operation （TBO）, a new fourdimensional （4D） aircraft trajectory prediction approach that is based on aircraft continuous dynamics and discrete dynamics model was presented to predict trajectories of departure aircraft by dividing the departure operation into taking-off and climbing phases. Through in-depth analysis of factors such as the model construction, aircraft intent, initial state, performance parameters, and environmental information, the uncertainty in 4D aircraft trajectory prediction was reduced and the accuracy of prediction was improved. Taking the domestic flight CQH8867 from ZSPD to ZUCK as an example, a simulation was conducted to verify the validity of the proposed method, in which the position error and time error were chosen as the evaluation criteria, and the influences of the takeoff mass, top-of-climb （TOC） altitude, wind speed and wind direction on the departure aircraft 4D trajectory prediction were taken into account. Results show that the proposed algorithm can control the error between expected and actual time of arrival at departure fix within 1 min to meet the demand for air traffic management.

关 键 词：航迹预测 起飞 预测误差 空中交通管制 

分 类 号：V355[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]