基于KBSI模型的新疆平均气温空间插值研究  

Study on Spatial Interpolation of Mean Temperature Based on KBSI Model in Xinjiang

作　　者：胡义成[1] 姚作新[1] 秦荣茂[2] 孔婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆气象信息中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆气象局观测与网络处,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2016年第3期66-71,共6页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2013009;Sqj2015005)共同资助

摘　　要：选取新疆近30a(1981—2010年)整编的月平均气温数据,定量分析了海拔高度、经纬度因子对气温空间分布的影响,利用KBSI模型对选定的新疆40个国家基本站月平均气温进行空间模拟,并对插值精度进行了交叉验证。结果表明,在进行新疆月平均气温空间模拟时,插值参数应充分考虑到温度分布的空间连续性和季节差异性。在选取参考站时应综合考虑到周边气象站点的疏密和实测数据的可用率等实际情况。为了提高插值精度,需要引入地形(坡度、坡向)和下垫面特征数据来对插值结果进行修正。Based on the monthly mean temperature from 40 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1981-2010, we analyzed the quantitatively of the altitude, latitude and longitude factors influence on temperature distribution. By using the KBSI model, the monthly mean temperature of 40 selected meteorological stations were simulated, and the interpolation accuracy was verified by cross validation. The results showed that the spatial continuity and seasonal variation should be fully considered to select the interpolation parameters when we are simulating the monthly mean temperature in Xinjiang. There were a significant correlation between monthly mean temperature and altitude in Xinjiang, and there have a large difference to the temperature decrease rate with altitude in different seasons. From the season of view, the decrease rate are highest in summer and lowest in winter, as well as the winter half year was significantly greater than summer half year. Furthermore, the longitudinal direction zonality is slightly larger than the latitudinal direction zonality. It also should be considered the density of the surrounding meteorological stations and the availability rate of the measured data when selected the reference station. When we interpolated the monthly mean temperature by use of KBSI model in Xinjiang, the reference station number is not necessarily the more the better, and the selection methods of which depends on the specific circumstance. Because there have a relatively small and uneven distribution to the meteorological stations in Xinjiang, in order to improve the interpolation accuracy, we need to introduce the terrain （such as slope and slope direction） and ground conditions data to modify the interpolation results.

关 键 词：KBSI 插值 平均气温 新疆 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]