资本产出比、技术进步率与经济增长  

Capital-output Ratio,Technical Progress Rate and Economic Growth

作　　者：江三良[1] 李攀[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2016年第4期14-19,共6页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学重大基金项目"‘稳增长;调结构;防通胀’三重目标下我国货币政策优化与预期管理研究"(项目编号:11&ZD011);安徽大学合肥区域经济与城市发展研究院资助/区域经济研究院2015招标课题"合肥经济圈工业化与城市化问题研究"(项目编号:Y01002271)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于资本产出比,利用1995-2014年相关数据分析中国经济中高速增长,研究发现:1995-2007年中国经济增长基本上符合卡尔多经济增长的程式化事实,资本增长率与经济增长率保持3%左右的差距;2008年开始的政府4万亿投资并没有阻止经济的下滑,中国资本产出比增加的事实与发达国家长期趋于下降的趋势不吻合,是因为技术进步未能抵消资本边际报酬递减效应的结果,依赖大规模投资以保持经济稳定增长的道路已不可持续。因此保持一定的技术进步率,提高资本产出弹性,提高单位资本产出和资本回报率,是中国未来发展的不二选择。Based on the capital-output ratio ,the rapid growth of Chinese economy is analyzed by using 1995-2014 relevant data. The study found： China＇s economic growth from 1995 to 2007 is basically in line with Kaldor stylized facts ,and the difference between the capital growth and economic growth remains stable 3%. 4 trillion of government investment since 2008 did not offset the decline of the economy. The fact of the increment of China＇s capital output ratio is not consistent with the trend of long-run declining of the developed countries, the reason is the technical progress has not offset the effect of diminishing marginal returns of capital.The path which relies on large-scale investment to keep economic stable growth is not sustainable.Therefore, keeping certain technical progress rate, improving the output elasticity of capital and improving capital output per capita and capital returns are the only choice for China＇s future develop- ment.

关 键 词：资本产出比 资本存量 资本产出弹性 边际报酬率 技术进步率 

分 类 号：F272.5[经济管理—企业管理]