国际油价波动对中国经济及价格水平影响的时间路径分析  

The Time Path Analysis of the International Oil Price Fluctuations on China's Economy and Price Level

作　　者：彭澎[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学人文经管学院,北京100083

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2016年第3期11-15,81,共5页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

摘　　要：2016年初,中国经济需求侧仍比较疲软,但是CPI与PPI指数却均在上行,未来货币政策的空间受到挤压。当前研究国际油价波动对于经济增长、物价水平和货币政策影响的时间路径极为必要。为此,尝试使用向量自回归的方法刻画国际油价波动影响的时间路径。结果显示,石油价格分别在半年后和15个月后对物价水平和国内生产总值的影响最大。国际原油价格变动对国内经济的影响首先是通过价格上涨/下降引致产出降低/提高,最终导致经济衰退/回暖。国内成品油调价机制改革后石油价格对于价格水平的滞后期缩短为2个月。At the beginning of 2016, China's economy demand is still relatively weak, but both the CPI and PPI index are in the upward state, the future monetary policy space are squeezed. The current research of international oil price fluctuations is very necessary for economic growth, price level and the time path of monetary policy's influence. Therefore, we try to use the vector auto-regression method to depict the time path of the international oil price fluctuations. The results show that the oil price has greatest influences on the price level and the gross domestic product(GDP) in half a year and 15 months later. The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the domestic economy is first and foremost by prices rising/decline causing outcome reduce/improve, eventually leading to the economy recession/recovery. After the reformation of domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the lag phase of oil prices to the price level is shortened to 2 months.

关 键 词：国际油价 中国经济 物价水平 货币政策 向量自回归 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1F124