中国东中西部经济带的水环境库兹涅茨假说实证及其影响因素研究  

The Study on the Water Environmetal Kuznets Curve of Three Major Economic Zones and Its Influencing Factors in China During the 8th to 12th Five Year Plan

作　　者：朱素芳[1,2] 李适宇[1] 李勇 张秋华 

机构地区：[1]中山大学环境科学与工程学院,广东省环境污染控制与修复技术重点实验室,广东广州510275 [2]佛山环境监测中心站,广东佛山528000 [3]广东环境保护工程职业学院,广东佛山528000

出　　处：《环境科学与管理》2016年第7期85-90,共6页Environmental Science and Management

摘　　要："八五"至"十二五"期间,中国取得巨大的经济成果的同时带来了严重的水环境污染问题。文章分析了东中西部三大经济带经济发展及COD和氨氮两种主要水污染排放的差异,及其与经济发展的关系进行了EKC假说的实证研究。研究结果表明,部分污染物的拟合曲线尚处于上升阶段,未能出现典型的倒U型曲线,可能导致水环境质量恶化。环境基础设施建设、人口分布和产业结构等因素与COD和氨氮的排放量密切相关,因此,中国必须采取各种环境管理和技术手段,促使区域水污染物排放量指标与经济发展的拟合曲线出现转折点,改善水环境质量。China achieved great economic progress during the 8th to 12th Five -Year Plans（ 1995 -2013） ; however, one con- sequence is serious degradation of water quality,. The paper analyszes the economics differences and the priamry water pollutants emissions among the Eastern, the Central and the western of China, and makes an empirical test on the relation between the emissions of COD, ammonia nitrogen and economics development based on the Environmetal Kuznets Curve（EKC） hypothesis. The paper also analyzes the influencing factors on EKC. The result shows that some fitted curves displays rising trend, not the invert U curve, so the emissions of them may be increasing. Environmental infrastructure construction, population distribution and industrial structure, the level of environmental control technology and emissions of COD and ammonia nitrogen are closely related. Therefore, China should implement the advanced environmental management policy and technologies to accelerate the appearance of the turning point of the fitting curve of the water pollutant emissions and economic development, improving water environment quality.

关 键 词：环境库兹涅茨曲线 水污染物排放 东中西部经济带 实证 影响因素 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]