中日产业转移及贸易隐含碳的影响因素——基于垂直专业化分工的研究视角  

Industry Transfer and Driving Facts of Trade Embodied Carbon in China-Japan——Based on Vertical Specialization

作　　者：陈楠[1] 刘学敏[1] 长谷部勇一 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875 [2]横滨国立大学国际社会科学府

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2016年第15期236-241,246,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目"城镇碳排放清单编制方法与决策支持系统研究;开发与示范"(2011BAJ07B07);"城镇碳排放技术清单编制和综合评价指标体系建设"(2011BAJ07B07-2)

摘　　要：采用改进的非竞争性投入产出模型及结构分析法(SDA),根据净出口消费指数及垂直专业化率,分别测算1995—2011年中日两国污染产业的转移情况、贸易隐含碳的影响因素及垂直专业化率与隐含碳的相互关系。研究结果表明:中国并未成为"污染者天堂",日本主要向中国转移了化工业、采掘业、其他非金属矿物制造业、交通设备制造业及机械设备制造等高、中碳产业,中国则向日本转移了木材加工业、其他制造业等中碳产业及大部分低碳产业。在影响因素中,能源使用效率及中间技术效应减少了隐含碳的排放,贡献率分别为-170.12%及-6.37%;规模效应及结构效应促进了隐含碳排放,贡献率分别为158.06%及39.54%。中国垂直化率与出口隐含碳之间存在显著正相关关系,垂直专业化率每增加1%,出口CO2增加0.974%。Using the improved input - output model and Structural Decomposition Analysis （ SDA）, it dynamically ana- lyzed transfer of polluting industries between the two countries, the driving factors of embodied carbon, mutual relations be- tween vertical specialization rate and embodied carbon from 1995 to 2011, based on NETXC and vertical specialization rate. The result shows that China has not become the ＂polluter paradise＂ ; Japan mainly transferred high - middle carbon intensity industries to China, including chemical industries, mining and quarrying industries, other non - metal mineral in- dustries, transport equipment industries, machinery industries. While China mainly transferred middle -low carbon inten- sity industries to Japan, including wood and products of wood and cork industries, other machinery industries. The SDA a- nalysis revealed that energy effect and intermediate technology effect decreased respectively - 170. 12% and - 6. 37% embodied carbon of China export to Japan. Scale effect and structure effect respectively increased 158.06% and 39. 54% embodied carbon of China export to Japan. There was a significant positive correlation between vertical specialization rate and ＂embodied carbon＂, vertical specialization rate increased by 1% , embodied carbon in exports increased 0. 974%.

关 键 词：贸易隐含碳 结构分析 产业转移 垂直专业化率 

分 类 号：F131.3[经济管理—世界经济] F124[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F752.7X196