基于联立方程与状态空间模型对中国经济增长与环境污染关系的研究  

Exploring the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in China Based on Simultaneous Equations and State-space Model

作　　者：王铭利[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学应用经济学博士后流动站,开封475004

出　　处：《管理评论》2016年第7期75-84,共10页Management Review

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(14CTJ007);河南省博士后资助项目(2015057)

摘　　要：大多数对经济增长与环境污染的研究仅关注经济对污染的单向作用忽视了污染对增长的反向影响,导致环境库兹涅茨曲线形态的多样性。为全面考察二者之间的双向影响及动态关系,本文基于中国2000-2014年各省市的面板数据,首先用三阶段最小二乘法(3SLS)估计联立方程组模型考察中国的环境库兹涅茨环境曲线的形态,然后采用状态空间模型进一步分析经济增长与环境污染之间的动态相关关系。实证结果表明工业废水排放量、工业二氧化硫排放量、工业固体废弃物产生量与人均GDP之间的关系均符合环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线,各污染物对经济增长影响的方向与程度不尽相同。并且环境污染和经济增长动态相关性研究表明,2012年之后污染对经济增长的弹性上升,而经济增长对污染的弹性下降,表明近年来我国污染物控制取得了良好效果,环境保护和经济增长的协调性增强。Most of the researches only pay attention to the one-way effect of the economy on the pollution and ignore the negative impact of pollution on the growth,leading to the diversity of the environmental Kuznets curve. This study estimates the dynamic two-way coupling relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution based on the panel data of 30 provinces during 2000-2014 using Simultaneous-equation and State-space model. The empirical results show that there exists inverted ＂U＂-shape EKC between per capita GDP and Environmental pollution index in China. Meanwhile,we find the elasticity of economic growth to environmental pollution has been reduced after 2012,which shows that environmental protection has achieved good results and enhance coordination of environmental protection and economic growth in recent years.

关 键 词：经济增长 环境污染 环境库兹涅茨曲线 状态空间模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]