灰色加权马尔可夫组合模型的车削加工尺寸预报研究  

Research on Turning Dimension Prediction Based on Grey Weighted Markov Combined Model

作　　者：杨柳[1] 宁会峰[1,2] 龚俊[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学机电工程学院,甘肃兰州730050 [2]兰州理工大学数字制造技术与应用省部共建教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730050

出　　处：《机械设计与制造》2016年第8期39-42,45,共5页Machinery Design & Manufacture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51565033);甘肃省自然科学基金资助项目(1112RJZA025)

摘　　要：机械加工尺寸预报是机械预测补偿控制技术的基础。传统灰色模型可用于预测时间短,数量少,数据波动起伏不大的动态系统,而马尔可夫链理论适用于处理随机波动性大的过程。于是,结合传统灰色系统和马尔可夫链的优点,提出一种基于外圆车削过程尺寸预测的加权马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)c组合模型。结果表明:加权马尔可夫SCGM(1,1)c模型可用于外圆车削的机械加工尺寸预报。通过仿真证明此模型既可揭示外圆车削加工尺寸变化的总趋势,又能减小随机波动性的影响,精度可达到要求。The prediction of machining dimension is the basis of forecast compensation control technology. Traditional grey model is available for forecasting such kind of system with short time ,few data and little fluctuating dynamic process ,and Markav chain theory is suitable for dealing with the great changed stochastic fluctuating process. Then,combining the advantages of both grey model and Markov chain,put forward a weighted Mavkov SCGM（ 1,1 ）c combined model for cylindrical turning dimension predictioru The results show that this model can be used in the machining of cylindrical turning dimension prediction. The simulation analyses prove that this mathematic model not only discovers the trend of the cylindrical turning processing size, but also reduces the influence of stochastic fluctuating, and the precision of the result is satisfied.

关 键 词：外圆车削 单因子系统云灰色模型 马尔可夫链 尺寸预报 

分 类 号：TH161[机械工程—机械制造及自动化] G519.1[文化科学—教育学]