气候变化对宿州市夏粮产量的影响  

The Impact of Climate Change on Summer Grain Yield of Suzhou City

作　　者：王琳佳 许永姿 

机构地区：[1]安徽省宿州市灵璧县气象局,安徽宿州234200

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2016年第18期175-177,186,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：安徽省2015年硕博人才基金项目(RC201519)

摘　　要：[目的]研究气候变化对宿州市夏粮产量的影响。[方法]利用1982～2014年宿州降水量、气温观测资料和夏粮产量资料，采用M－K检验、灰色关联、GM（1，1）模型等方法，通过计算气候产量来评估一定时间尺度上气候变化对宿州夏粮生产的影响。[结果]1982～2014年宿州市夏季粮食生产时间段（6～9月）的气温处于持续上升的趋势，并在1993年气温发生突变，在1996年以后显著上升；夏粮生产期的降水则呈现波动上涨趋势。通过相关分析，选取气温作为主要气候因子分析夏粮气候产量变化。近33 a来宿州市夏粮产量不断增长，利用GM（1，1）模型计算期间趋势产量，研究气候因子对气象产量的影响发现，随着夏粮单产的显著增加，气候变化给宿州夏粮生产带来的损失也越来越大。[结论]该研究为宿州市夏粮生产提供理论依据。Objective] To research the effects of climate change on summer grain yield of Suzhou City.[Method] We adopted the precipitation, temperature observation data and summer grain yield of Suzhou City from 1982 to 2014.M-K test, grey correlation, GM（1, 1） model were used to calculate the effects climate yield, so that the impacts of climate change in certain time scale on summer grain yield of Suzhou City was evalua-ted.[Result] Temperature of summer grain production period （June-September） was in a rising trend in Suzhou City from 1982 to 2014.Tem-perature changed suddenly in 1993, and then enhanced significantly after 1996.Precipitation in summer grain production period showed increas-ing trend with fluctuation.Correlation analysis showed that temperature was selected as the major climate factors to analyze the climate yield change of summer grain.In the past 33 years, summer grain yield kept increasing.Yield trend in this period was calculated by GM （1, 1） mod-el.Research on the impacts of climate factor on meteorological yield showed that with the significant increase of unit yield of summer grain , cli-mate change brought more and more loss for the summer grain production of Suzhou City .[Conclusion] This research provides theoretical founda-tion for the summer grain production of Suzhou City .

关 键 词：宿州 夏粮 气候变化 GM(1 1)模型 气候产量 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]